2022 · Week 12

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

26·33

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapVikings
  • -0.047EPA / play+0.004
  • 41.1%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.130
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.93CPOE+1.66
  • 35.3%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.04
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W13MIN @ NE10–24NE
2014 · W2NE @ MIN30–7NE
2010 · W8MIN @ NE18–28NE
2006 · W8NE @ MIN31–7NE
2002 · W12MIN @ NE17–24NE
2000 · W3MIN @ NE21–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIN
MINQ1 15:00865Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 10:40575Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 8:2139Punt7–7
NEQ1 6:4437Punt7–7
MINQ1 5:2746Turnover7–7
NEQ1 3:2831Field goal10–7
MINQ1 1:281482Field goal10–10
NEQ2 8:29423Field goal13–10
MINQ2 5:41970Touchdown13–16
NEQ2 1:30770Field goal16–16
MINQ2 0:0300End of half16–16
NEQ3 15:00875Touchdown23–22
MINQ3 10:5400Touchdown23–23
NEQ3 10:41869Field goal26–23
MINQ3 6:431445Field goal26–26
NEQ4 14:0731Punt26–26
MINQ4 13:06671Touchdown26–33
NEQ4 9:3439Punt26–33
MINQ4 8:07610Punt26–33
NEQ4 4:21748Turnover on downs26–33
MINQ4 1:5431Punt26–33
NEQ4 0:53331End of half26–33

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones28/3938220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson7365.10
Damien Harris5163.20
Kendrick Bourne1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker44800
Rhamondre Stevenson910760
Nelson Agholor68651
Hunter Henry35631
Jakobi Meyers34620
Kendrick Bourne34360

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/3729931
Justin Jefferson1/11100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook22421.90
Alexander Mattison3113.70
K.J. Osborn155.00
Kirk Cousins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson9111391
Adam Thielen910611
T.J. Hockenson56431
Jalen Reagor11250
Johnny Mundt22200
Dalvin Cook45140
K.J. Osborn1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.95