Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play+0.004
- 41.1%Success rate45.8%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.130
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.93CPOE+1.66
- 35.3%Third-down rate40.7%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.54Points / drive2.04
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 28/39 | 382 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 6 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/37 | 299 | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 22 | 42 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 11 | 139 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 9 | 10 | 61 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.95