2010 · Week 8

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

18·28

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NE -5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.2est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.112EPA / play+0.191
  • 42.3%Success rate48.7%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.265
  • -0.121EPA / rush+0.096
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -2.30CPOE+2.77
  • 34.1%Third-down rate48.3%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.25Points / drive2.76
  • 3.5%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12NE @ MIN26–33MIN
2018 · W13MIN @ NE10–24NE
2014 · W2NE @ MIN30–7NE
2006 · W8NE @ MIN31–7NE
2002 · W12MIN @ NE17–24NE
2000 · W3MIN @ NE21–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NE
NEQ1 15:00725Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:21731Punt0–0
NEQ1 6:5037Punt0–0
MINQ1 6:061369Touchdown7–0
NEQ2 14:57875Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 10:25634Punt7–7
NEQ2 7:1132Punt7–7
MINQ2 6:21955Turnover on downs7–7
NEQ2 1:0200End of half7–7
MINQ3 15:001068Field goal10–7
NEQ3 9:33480Touchdown10–14
MINQ3 7:59314Punt10–14
NEQ3 6:0834Punt10–14
MINQ3 5:0429Turnover10–14
NEQ3 4:13437Touchdown10–21
MINQ3 2:2538Punt10–21
NEQ3 0:09850Punt10–21
MINQ4 11:001164Touchdown18–21
NEQ4 7:261384Touchdown18–28
MINQ4 1:56758End of half18–28

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre22/3225901
Tarvaris Jackson4/63610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson25923.71
Tarvaris Jackson13333.00
Toby Gerhart200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin681040
Toby Gerhart55670
Adrian Peterson56500
Visanthe Shiancoe45380
Bernard Berrian24150
Randy Moss1280
Greg Lewis1340
Jimmy Kleinsasser0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady16/2724010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis171126.62
Danny Woodhead6132.21
Tom Brady4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Tate341011
Danny Woodhead56450
Aaron Hernandez23330
Wes Welker35240
Deion Branch13210
BenJarvus Green-Ellis12110
Rob Gronkowski1350
Alge Crumpler0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.19