Closing spread
NE -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play+0.191
- 42.3%Success rate48.7%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.121EPA / rush+0.096
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- -2.30CPOE+2.77
- 34.1%Third-down rate48.3%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.25Points / drive2.76
- 3.5%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/32 | 259 | 0 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 4/6 | 36 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 92 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1 | 33 | 33.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 6 | 8 | 104 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 5 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/27 | 240 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 17 | 112 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Danny Woodhead | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Tate | 3 | 4 | 101 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.19