2002 · Week 12

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

17·24

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

NE -8

Total

47

Model margin

+1.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.060EPA / play-0.000
  • 45.1%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.037
  • +0.071EPA / rush-0.064
  • 9.3%Explosive rate6.3%
  • 43.6%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.69
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.082EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12NE @ MIN26–33MIN
2018 · W13MIN @ NE10–24NE
2014 · W2NE @ MIN30–7NE
2010 · W8MIN @ NE18–28NE
2006 · W8NE @ MIN31–7NE
2000 · W3MIN @ NE21–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NE
MINQ1 15:001063Missed field goal0–0
NEQ1 9:041267Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 3:24612Punt0–7
NEQ1 0:50856Touchdown0–14
MINQ2 12:3030Turnover0–14
NEQ2 12:03835Touchdown0–21
MINQ2 8:02760Turnover0–21
NEQ2 4:59610Punt0–21
MINQ2 2:4926Turnover0–21
NEQ2 2:1452Turnover on downs0–21
MINQ2 1:09656Touchdown7–21
NEQ2 0:1900End of half7–21
NEQ3 15:00827Turnover on downs7–21
MINQ3 12:15514Punt7–21
NEQ3 10:3159Punt7–21
MINQ3 8:04744Touchdown14–21
NEQ3 4:45614Punt14–21
MINQ3 2:58861Field goal17–21
NEQ4 14:42656Field goal17–24
MINQ4 11:09847Missed field goal17–24
NEQ4 7:37419Punt17–24
MINQ4 5:33930Turnover on downs17–24
NEQ4 3:2136Punt17–24
MINQ4 1:04824Turnover on downs17–24
NEQ4 0:1100End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper24/4927220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daunte Culpepper55911.80
Michael Bennett14553.90
Moe Williams6396.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss813920
Kelly Campbell613631
Byron Chamberlain33380
Jimmy Kleinsasser23310
D'Wayne Bates36291
Moe Williams15110
Michael Bennett1180
Chris Walsh0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady21/3423930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith18583.20
Tom Brady640.70
Kevin Faulk430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Patten59620
Antowain Smith22380
Troy Brown47331
Deion Branch13200
Daniel Graham13170
Kevin Faulk34160
Christian Fauria22102
Donald Hayes0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.08