Closing spread
NE -8
Total
47
Model margin
+1.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.000
- 45.1%Success rate43.6%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.037
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- 43.6%Third-down rate43.1%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.93Points / drive1.69
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 24/49 | 272 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 59 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 8 | 13 | 92 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 6 | 13 | 63 | 1 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/34 | 239 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 4 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
| Donald Hayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.08