Closing spread
NE -6
Total
50
Model margin
+4.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.090
- 43.2%Success rate47.3%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.031
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.7%
- +2.40CPOE+1.03
- 36.2%Third-down rate41.8%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 1.57Points / drive2.32
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 32/44 | 201 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 84 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 5 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 10 | 28 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 8 | 10 | 22 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/32 | 311 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 0 |
| James White | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 7 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 3 | 58 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.98