Closing spread
NE -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.151
- 44.2%Success rate39.3%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.174
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.117
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.89CPOE+1.13
- 43.7%Third-down rate33.2%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate45.1%
- 1.82Points / drive0.99
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/43 | 372 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 20/33 | 185 | 0 | 3 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 6/9 | 76 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.50