Closing spread
NE -1.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.079
- 44.7%Success rate38.3%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.195
- 10.6%Explosive rate5.5%
- 46.0%Third-down rate35.1%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 2.14Points / drive1.30
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 17 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 6:06 | 6 | 30 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 4:15 | 19 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NE | Q2 9:53 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 14–7 |
| MIN | Q2 8:22 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| NE | Q2 5:18 | 8 | 44 | Missed field goal | 21–7 |
| MIN | Q2 1:50 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NE | Q2 1:02 | 6 | 27 | End of half | 21–7 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 21–7 |
| MIN | Q3 13:38 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NE | Q3 11:59 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–7 |
| MIN | Q3 10:25 | 13 | 48 | Turnover | 21–7 |
| NE | Q3 3:46 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 21–7 |
| MIN | Q3 3:39 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 21–7 |
| NE | Q3 2:47 | 7 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 21–7 |
| MIN | Q4 14:56 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NE | Q4 13:25 | 6 | 43 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| MIN | Q4 11:11 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 21–13 |
| NE | Q4 6:24 | 9 | 45 | Punt | 21–13 |
| MIN | Q4 2:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–13 |
| NE | Q4 2:06 | 7 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 21–13 |
| MIN | Q4 0:54 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 21–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 19/28 | 177 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 29 | 91 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 7 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 2 | 2 | 46 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 21/35 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 13 | 80 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 8 | 17 | 69 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 7 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.55