2014 · Week 2

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

30·7

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Matt Cassel

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+0.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapVikings
  • +0.090EPA / play-0.034
  • 46.4%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback-0.018
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.061
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.32CPOE-2.18
  • 45.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 2.38Points / drive1.59
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12NE @ MIN26–33MIN
2018 · W13MIN @ NE10–24NE
2010 · W8MIN @ NE18–28NE
2006 · W8NE @ MIN31–7NE
2002 · W12MIN @ NE17–24NE
2000 · W3MIN @ NE21–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIN
MINQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 10:5439Punt0–7
MINQ1 9:2548Turnover0–7
NEQ1 6:5721Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 6:1431Punt7–7
NEQ1 4:43950Field goal10–7
MINQ1 0:32613Turnover10–7
NEQ2 13:30871Touchdown17–7
MINQ2 9:30624Punt17–7
NEQ2 5:51528Punt17–7
MINQ2 2:581162Opp touchdown24–7
MINQ2 0:0900End of half24–7
NEQ3 15:00725Punt24–7
MINQ3 12:18623Turnover24–7
NEQ3 9:42417Field goal27–7
MINQ3 8:323-6Punt27–7
NEQ3 6:461350Field goal30–7
MINQ4 14:5730Punt30–7
NEQ4 13:433-4Punt30–7
MINQ4 12:05525Punt30–7
NEQ4 9:2439Punt30–7
MINQ4 7:2620Turnover30–7
NEQ4 5:57836Turnover on downs30–7
MINQ4 1:568-7Turnover on downs30–7

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady14/2114910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley251014.01
Shane Vereen6406.70
Julian Edelman199.00
Tom Brady100.00
Brandon Bolden400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman67811
Rob Gronkowski46320
Aaron Dobson12130
Michael Hoomanawanui1160
Danny Amendola0100
Shane Vereen0100
Timothy Wright0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel19/3620214

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata13362.80
Matt Cassel3165.30
Jerick McKinnon273.50
Jarius Wright1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cordarrelle Patterson47560
Kyle Rudolph58530
Matt Asiata57481
Rhett Ellison11240
Jarius Wright13120
Jerick McKinnon2350
Greg Jennings1540
Adam Thielen0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.82
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.26