Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+0.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play-0.034
- 46.4%Success rate42.2%
- +0.173EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.061
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.32CPOE-2.18
- 45.6%Third-down rate39.7%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 2.38Points / drive1.59
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 14/21 | 149 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 25 | 101 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/36 | 202 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 5 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26