2023 · Week 13

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

19·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -5.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapPackers
  • +0.021EPA / play+0.075
  • 43.8%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.054
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +1.52CPOE+1.07
  • 44.9%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.16
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W9GB @ KC7–13KC
2019 · W8GB @ KC31–24GB
2015 · W3KC @ GB28–38GB
2011 · W15GB @ KC14–19KC
2007 · W9GB @ KC33–22GB
2003 · W6KC @ GB40–34KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–GB
GBQ1 15:001375Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 7:131370Field goal3–7
GBQ2 15:00875Touchdown3–14
KCQ2 10:391469Field goal6–14
GBQ2 2:19843Punt6–14
KCQ2 0:0900End of half6–14
KCQ3 15:001190Touchdown12–14
GBQ3 9:39767Touchdown12–21
KCQ3 5:231261Touchdown19–21
GBQ4 14:51722Punt19–21
KCQ4 11:3632Punt19–21
GBQ4 10:411165Field goal19–24
KCQ4 6:0339Turnover19–24
GBQ4 5:141035Field goal19–27
KCQ4 1:091037Turnover on downs19–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes21/3321011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco181106.11
Patrick Mahomes4266.50
Clyde Edwards-Helaire263.00
Kadarius Toney166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce45810
Rashee Rice89640
Marquez Valdes-Scantling25250
Isiah Pacheco34130
Richie James12120
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1280
Skyy Moore1250
Noah Gray1121

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love25/3626730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon18734.10
Patrick Taylor22914.50
Christian Watson2157.50
Jordan Love2105.00
James Robinson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs45720
Christian Watson79712
Dontayvion Wicks34430
Tucker Kraft36370
Jayden Reed45160
Malik Heath12150
AJ Dillon11140
Ben Sims1111
Patrick Taylor0100
James Robinson11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.37