Closing spread
KC -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.075
- 43.8%Success rate45.1%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.054
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.52CPOE+1.07
- 44.9%Third-down rate47.4%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.89Points / drive2.16
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 21/33 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 18 | 110 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 81 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 8 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 25/36 | 267 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 7 | 9 | 71 | 2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.37