2015 · Week 3

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

28·38

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -4.5

Total

47

Model margin

-0.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapPackers
  • +0.033EPA / play+0.002
  • 44.0%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +0.03CPOE-0.77
  • 36.6%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.72
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13KC @ GB19–27GB
2021 · W9GB @ KC7–13KC
2019 · W8GB @ KC31–24GB
2011 · W15GB @ KC14–19KC
2007 · W9GB @ KC33–22GB
2003 · W6KC @ GB40–34KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–GB
GBQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:5337Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:20669Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 9:443-3Punt0–7
GBQ1 8:091374Touchdown0–14
KCQ1 2:183-1Punt0–14
GBQ1 0:48727Turnover on downs0–14
KCQ2 13:08447Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 12:021056Field goal7–17
KCQ2 6:153-1Punt7–17
GBQ2 3:581073Touchdown7–24
KCQ2 0:56545End of half7–24
KCQ3 15:0032Punt7–24
GBQ3 13:3030Punt7–24
KCQ3 12:323-8Punt7–24
GBQ3 10:23539Punt7–24
KCQ3 7:5830Turnover7–30
GBQ3 7:2214Touchdown7–31
KCQ3 7:181180Touchdown14–31
GBQ3 0:56880Touchdown14–38
KCQ4 12:10879Touchdown22–38
GBQ4 9:56719Punt22–38
KCQ4 5:481878Touchdown28–38
GBQ4 1:2532Punt28–38
KCQ4 0:1921End of half28–38

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith24/4029011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles11494.53
Alex Smith6335.50
De'Anthony Thomas1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin8111411
Travis Kelce610800
Jamaal Charles57330
Chris Conley11160
De'Anthony Thomas22120
Jason Avant2480
Demetrius Harris0100
Charcandrick West0100
Albert Wilson0300

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3533350

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy10464.60
James Starks17321.90
Alonzo Harris2178.50
Aaron Rodgers2168.00
Randall Cobb11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones781391
Randall Cobb712913
Eddie Lacy33410
James Starks11190
Richard Rodgers24150
Andrew Quarless22140
Ty Montgomery22141
Jeff Janis0100
Davante Adams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.05