Closing spread
GB -4.5
Total
47
Model margin
-0.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play+0.002
- 44.0%Success rate42.3%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.03CPOE-0.77
- 36.6%Third-down rate33.6%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.92Points / drive1.72
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 24/40 | 290 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 3 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 8 | 11 | 141 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/35 | 333 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| James Starks | 17 | 32 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Alonzo Harris | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 7 | 8 | 139 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 12 | 91 | 3 |
| Eddie Lacy | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Jeff Janis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.05