Closing spread
KC -1
Total
38
Model margin
-0.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.132
- 43.6%Success rate37.8%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.6%Explosive rate5.9%
- +4.25CPOE-0.79
- 42.9%Third-down rate34.0%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 2.16Points / drive0.94
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:10 | 6 | 38 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 9:38 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 7:05 | 15 | 58 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q2 14:52 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| GB | Q2 11:16 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q2 8:59 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 3–0 |
| GB | Q2 5:16 | 8 | 76 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| KC | Q2 1:19 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–0 |
| GB | Q2 0:48 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| KC | Q2 0:25 | 2 | 1 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| GB | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–7 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 6–7 |
| KC | Q3 11:27 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 6–7 |
| GB | Q3 7:36 | 7 | 55 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| KC | Q3 3:22 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| GB | Q3 2:03 | 5 | 40 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| KC | Q3 0:11 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| GB | Q4 11:11 | 4 | 46 | Field goal | 16–14 |
| KC | Q4 8:52 | 10 | 52 | Touchdown | 16–22 |
| GB | Q4 5:18 | 4 | 82 | Touchdown | 23–22 |
| KC | Q4 3:05 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 23–22 |
| GB | Q4 1:59 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 26–22 |
| KC | Q4 1:40 | 3 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 33–22 |
| KC | Q4 0:59 | 5 | 16 | End of half | 33–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/34 | 360 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 19/32 | 213 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin-0.08