Closing spread
KC -1
Total
38
Model margin
-0.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.132
- 43.6%Success rate37.8%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.6%Explosive rate5.9%
- +4.25CPOE-0.79
- 42.9%Third-down rate34.0%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 2.16Points / drive0.94
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/34 | 360 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 19/32 | 213 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin-0.08