Closing spread
KC -7
Total
48
Model margin
+6.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.136EPA / play+0.140
- 48.9%Success rate51.1%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.216
- -0.003EPA / rush-0.024
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.71CPOE+2.81
- 43.8%Third-down rate52.1%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 2.45Points / drive2.66
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 19/34 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 14 | 42 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominique Dafney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 20/37 | 166 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 11 | 37 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+5.21
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+6.11