2021 · Week 9

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

7·13

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

KC -7

Total

48

Model margin

+6.1est.

KC perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.136EPA / play+0.140
  • 48.9%Success rate51.1%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.216
  • -0.003EPA / rush-0.024
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.71CPOE+2.81
  • 43.8%Third-down rate52.1%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 2.45Points / drive2.66
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13KC @ GB19–27GB
2019 · W8GB @ KC31–24GB
2015 · W3KC @ GB28–38GB
2011 · W15GB @ KC14–19KC
2007 · W9GB @ KC33–22GB
2003 · W6KC @ GB40–34KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–KC
GBQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:511659Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 5:56853Missed field goal0–7
KCQ1 0:4847Turnover on downs0–7
GBQ2 14:54523Missed field goal0–7
KCQ2 10:41625Punt0–7
GBQ2 8:19738Punt0–7
KCQ2 4:3144Punt0–7
KCQ2 2:4139Field goal0–10
GBQ2 1:51540Turnover on downs0–10
KCQ2 0:27425Field goal0–13
GBQ2 0:0100End of half0–13
KCQ3 15:0030Punt0–13
GBQ3 13:3035Punt0–13
KCQ3 12:1137Punt0–13
GBQ3 11:24616Punt0–13
KCQ3 6:441054Punt0–13
GBQ3 0:491669Turnover0–13
KCQ4 8:553-1Punt0–13
GBQ4 7:511053Touchdown7–13
KCQ4 4:54750End of half7–13

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love19/3419011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones12534.40
AJ Dillon8465.80
Jordan Love5234.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb35500
AJ Dillon44440
Davante Adams614420
Allen Lazard11201
Marquez Valdes-Scantling22190
Josiah Deguara22160
Aaron Jones0200
Dominique Dafney0100
Marcedes Lewis11-10

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes20/3716610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrel Williams19703.70
Derrick Gore3134.30
Patrick Mahomes2-2-1.00
Tyreek Hill1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce58681
Tyreek Hill411370
Jerick McKinnon33260
Mecole Hardman36200
Darrel Williams3470
Derrick Gore1160
Demarcus Robinson1120
Josh Gordon0100
Blake Bell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.2%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.21
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+6.11