Closing spread
GB -5
Total
48
Model margin
-2.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.135
- 43.9%Success rate47.0%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.247
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.96CPOE+1.86
- 37.9%Third-down rate48.7%
- 69.9%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.12Points / drive2.59
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/33 | 305 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 67 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 7 | 8 | 159 | 2 |
| Jake Kumerow | 2 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 24/36 | 267 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 2 | 55 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.96
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-2.84