2019 · Week 8

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·24

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Moore

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 54°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -5

Total

48

Model margin

-2.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.135
  • 43.9%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback+0.247
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +0.96CPOE+1.86
  • 37.9%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 69.9%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.59
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13KC @ GB19–27GB
2021 · W9GB @ KC7–13KC
2015 · W3KC @ GB28–38GB
2011 · W15GB @ KC14–19KC
2007 · W9GB @ KC33–22GB
2003 · W6KC @ GB40–34KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–KC
GBQ1 15:001284Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 8:4339Punt7–0
GBQ1 7:083-13Punt7–0
KCQ1 5:143-2Missed field goal7–0
GBQ1 4:11460Touchdown14–0
KCQ1 2:091289Touchdown14–7
GBQ2 10:5551Punt14–7
KCQ2 8:04562Touchdown14–14
GBQ2 6:14621Punt14–14
KCQ2 3:591074Field goal14–17
GBQ2 0:5656End of half14–17
KCQ3 15:00816Punt14–17
GBQ3 10:041477Field goal17–17
KCQ3 1:3111Turnover17–17
GBQ3 1:19527Touchdown24–17
KCQ4 13:571170Touchdown24–24
GBQ4 9:01275Touchdown31–24
KCQ4 8:02618Punt31–24
GBQ4 5:04839End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3330530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13675.20
Aaron Rodgers6294.80
Jamaal Williams7223.11

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Jones781592
Jake Kumerow24480
Allen Lazard55420
Jimmy Graham35200
Jamaal Williams33141
Marcedes Lewis11110
Geronimo Allison1370
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1240

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore24/3626720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy9404.40
Damien Williams7304.31
Darrel Williams2105.00
Tyreek Hill155.00
Matt Moore133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill69760
Travis Kelce48631
Mecole Hardman22551
Sammy Watkins58450
LeSean McCoy44230
Demarcus Robinson2260
Blake Bell0100
Darwin Thompson11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.5%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.96
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-2.84