Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play+0.065
- 47.9%Success rate45.9%
- +0.163EPA / dropback+0.126
- +0.069EPA / rush+0.001
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- 42.4%Third-down rate41.0%
- 79.8%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 2.38Points / drive2.11
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 27/45 | 400 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/36 | 272 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 26 | 139 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.25