Closing spread
GB -11
Total
46
Model margin
+1.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.230EPA / play-0.094
- 48.2%Success rate38.8%
- +0.405EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.149
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- +8.47CPOE-1.61
- 48.7%Third-down rate35.7%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate38.2%
- 2.85Points / drive1.06
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/35 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermichael Finley | 3 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Tom Crabtree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 23/31 | 299 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Pope | 2 | 2 | 72 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77