AFC East · 2023
Buffalo Bills
Record
11-6
Seed
#2
Net EPA
+0.130est.
Efficiency
How this team plays
Percentile against the teams that played this season, computed from play-by-play.
Offence
Higher is better.
- EPA / play+0.097
- Success rate48.4%
- EPA / dropback+0.153
- EPA / rush+0.010
- Explosive rate8.5%
- CPOE+4.96
- Third-down rate49.7%
- Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- Points / drive2.33
- Turnover rate2.4%
← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →
Defence
Oriented so that further right is always better.
- EPA / play allowed-0.049
- Success rate allowed43.0%
- EPA / dropback allowed-0.041
- EPA / rush allowed-0.066
- Explosive rate allowed8.5%
- Pressure rate (proxy)23.7%
- Sack rate7.8%
- Points / drive allowed1.63
← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →
Offensive EPA / play — league shape+0.097 · 92th %ile
Defensive EPA / play allowed — league shape (left is better)-0.049 · 33th %ile
Form
The shape of the season
Rolling four-week EPA per play. The aggregate hides collapses and surges; this shows them.
4-week rolling EPA/play — up is good for both lines.
- Offense
- Defense (prevented)
Betting profile
Against the number
Settled against closing lines. Descriptive, not predictive.
ATS
7-10
+2.4 vs line
Home
4-5
Away
3-5
As favorite
6-8
As dog
1-2
O/U
6-11
-1.2 vs total
Roster
81 players
48 active. Skill players link through to their fantasy page.
Quarterbacks3
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shane Buechele | QB | 25 | 6'0" 205 | 2 | Southern Methodist | DEV |
| 9 | Kyle Allen | QB | 27 | 6'3" 211 | 5 | Houston | ACT |
| 17 | Josh Allen | QB | 27 | 6'5" 237 | 5 | Wyoming | ACT |
Backs & receivers21
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | James Cook | RB | 25 | 5'11" 190 | 1 | Georgia | ACT |
| 10 | Khalil Shakir | WR | 23 | 6'0" 190 | 1 | Boise State | ACT |
| 11 | Deonte Harty | WR | 27 | 5'6" 170 | 4 | Assumption | ACT |
| 13 | Gabe Davis | WR | 24 | 6'2" 213 | 3 | Central Florida | INA |
| 13 | K.J. Hamler | WR | 24 | 5'9" 176 | 3 | Penn State | RES |
| 14 | Stefon Diggs | WR | 31 | 6'0" 191 | 8 | Maryland | ACT |
| 16 | Trent Sherfield | WR | 27 | 6'1" 219 | 5 | Vanderbilt | ACT |
| 18 | Justin Shorter | WR | 23 | 6'4" 228 | R | Florida | RES |
| 20 | Nyheim Hines | RB | 28 | 5'9" 198 | 5 | North Carolina State | RES |
| 22 | Damien Harris | RB | 26 | 5'11" 215 | 4 | Alabama | RES |
| 26 | Ty Johnson | RB | 27 | 5'10" 210 | 4 | Maryland | ACT |
| 28 | Latavius Murray | RB | 33 | 6'3" 230 | 10 | Central Florida | ACT |
| 41 | Reggie Gilliam | RB | 26 | 6'0" 255 | 3 | Toledo | ACT |
| 80 | Tyrell Shavers | WR | 24 | 6'4" 210 | R | San Diego State | DEV |
| 83 | Tre' McKitty | TE | 24 | 6'4" 245 | 2 | Georgia | DEV |
| 84 | Zach Davidson | TE | 25 | 6'7" 245 | 2 | Central Missouri | RES |
| 85 | Quintin Morris | TE | 24 | 6'2" 251 | 2 | Bowling Green | ACT |
| 86 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 25 | 6'4" 240 | R | Utah | ACT |
| 87 | Andy Isabella | WR | 28 | 5'9" 190 | 4 | Massachusetts | ACT |
| 88 | Dawson Knox | TE | 28 | 6'4" 254 | 4 | Mississippi | ACT |
| 89 | Bryan Thompson | WR | 24 | 6'1" 200 | R | Arizona State | DEV |
Offensive line15
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | Mitch Morse | OL | 31 | 6'6" 305 | 8 | Missouri | ACT |
| 62 | Greg Mancz | OL | 31 | 6'4" 310 | 8 | Toledo | DEV |
| 63 | Kevin Jarvis | OL | 26 | 6'6" 321 | 1 | Michigan State | DEV |
| 64 | O'Cyrus Torrence | OL | 23 | 6'5" 347 | R | Florida | ACT |
| 66 | Connor McGovern | OL | 27 | 6'5" 308 | 4 | Penn State | ACT |
| 68 | Germain Ifedi | OL | 29 | 6'5" 325 | 7 | Texas A&M | DEV |
| 68 | Brandon Shell | OL | 31 | 6'5" 324 | 7 | South Carolina | RET |
| 70 | Alec Anderson | OL | 25 | 6'5" 305 | 1 | UCLA | INA |
| 71 | Ryan Bates | OL | 26 | 6'4" 300 | 4 | Penn State | ACT |
| 72 | Tommy Doyle | OL | 25 | 6'8" 315 | 2 | Miami, O. | RES |
| 73 | Dion Dawkins | OL | 29 | 6'5" 320 | 6 | Temple | ACT |
| 74 | Ryan Van Demark | OL | 25 | 6'6" 300 | 1 | Connecticut | ACT |
| 75 | Richard Gouraige | OL | 26 | 6'5" 312 | R | Florida | DEV |
| 76 | David Edwards | OL | 26 | 6'6" 308 | 4 | Wisconsin | ACT |
| 79 | Spencer Brown | OL | 25 | 6'8" 321 | 2 | Northern Iowa | ACT |
Defensive front22
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Tyrel Dodson | LB | 25 | 6'0" 237 | 4 | Texas A&M | ACT |
| 40 | Von Miller | LB | 34 | 6'3" 250 | 12 | Texas A&M | ACT |
| 42 | Dorian Williams | LB | 22 | 6'2" 230 | R | Tulane | ACT |
| 43 | Terrel Bernard | LB | 24 | 6'1" 222 | 1 | Baylor | INA |
| 44 | Tyler Matakevich | LB | 32 | 6'1" 235 | 7 | Temple | ACT |
| 50 | Greg Rousseau | DL | 23 | 6'6" 253 | 2 | Miami | ACT |
| 51 | Eli Ankou | DL | 29 | 6'3" 325 | 6 | UCLA | DEV |
| 52 | A.J. Klein | LB | 32 | 6'1" 240 | 10 | Iowa State | ACT |
| 54 | Baylon Spector | LB | 26 | 6'0" 235 | 1 | Clemson | INA |
| 56 | Leonard Floyd | DL | 32 | 6'3" 240 | 7 | Georgia | ACT |
| 57 | A.J. Epenesa | DL | 26 | 6'6" 280 | 3 | Iowa | ACT |
| 58 | Matt Milano | LB | 29 | 6'0" 223 | 6 | Boston College | RES |
| 59 | Kingsley Jonathan | DL | 25 | 6'4" 260 | 1 | Syracuse | ACT |
| 90 | Shaq Lawson | DL | 29 | 6'3" 267 | 7 | Clemson | ACT |
| 91 | Ed Oliver | DL | 27 | 6'1" 287 | 4 | Houston | ACT |
| 92 | DaQuan Jones | DL | 33 | 6'4" 322 | 9 | Penn State | ACT |
| 93 | Linval Joseph | DL | 36 | 6'4" 329 | 13 | East Carolina | ACT |
| 94 | Andrew Brown | DL | 29 | 6'3" 290 | 5 | Virginia | DEV |
| 96 | Kameron Cline | DL | 25 | 6'4" 270 | 3 | South Dakota | DEV |
| 97 | Jordan Phillips | DL | 32 | 6'6" 341 | 8 | Oklahoma | RES |
| 98 | Poona Ford | DL | 29 | 5'11" 310 | 5 | Texas | INA |
| 99 | Tim Settle | DL | 26 | 6'3" 308 | 5 | Virginia Tech | ACT |
Secondary16
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Damar Hamlin | DB | 25 | 6'0" 195 | 2 | Pittsburgh | ACT |
| 7 | Taron Johnson | DB | 27 | 5'11" 192 | 5 | Weber State | ACT |
| 20 | Taylor Rapp | DB | 27 | 6'0" 208 | 4 | Washington | INA |
| 21 | Jordan Poyer | DB | 32 | 6'0" 191 | 10 | Oregon State | ACT |
| 23 | Micah Hyde | DB | 34 | 6'0" 197 | 10 | Iowa | ACT |
| 24 | Kaiir Elam | DB | 22 | 6'1" 196 | 1 | Florida | ACT |
| 27 | Tre'Davious White | DB | 28 | 5'11" 192 | 6 | Louisiana State | RES |
| 29 | Josh Norman | DB | 37 | 6'0" 200 | 11 | Coastal Carolina | DEV |
| 30 | Dane Jackson | DB | 28 | 5'11" 185 | 3 | Pittsburgh | ACT |
| 31 | Rasul Douglas | DB | 29 | 6'2" 209 | 6 | West Virginia | ACT |
| 32 | Kyron Brown | DB | 27 | 6'1" 195 | 4 | Akron | DEV |
| 33 | Siran Neal | DB | 29 | 6'0" 205 | 5 | Jacksonville State | ACT |
| 36 | Kendall Williamson | DB | 23 | 6'0" 203 | R | Stanford | RES |
| 39 | Cam Lewis | DB | 26 | 5'9" 185 | 4 | Buffalo | ACT |
| 46 | Ja'Marcus Ingram | DB | 27 | 6'2" 185 | 1 | Buffalo | DEV |
| 47 | Christian Benford | DB | 24 | 6'1" 205 | 1 | Villanova | INA |
Specialists4
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tyler Bass | K | 26 | 5'10" 185 | 3 | Georgia Southern | ACT |
| 8 | Sam Martin | P | 33 | 6'1" 211 | 10 | Appalachian State | ACT |
| 39 | Matt Haack | P | 29 | 6'0" 205 | 6 | Arizona State | DEV |
| 69 | Reid Ferguson | LS | 29 | 6'2" 235 | 7 | Louisiana State | ACT |
Schedule
19 games
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Spread | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Jets | L 16-22 | -2.5 | -0.079 |
| 2 | vs Raiders | W 38-10 | -7.5 | +0.316 |
| 3 | @ Commanders | W 37-3 | -5.5 | +0.158 |
| 4 | vs Dolphins | W 48-20 | -2.5 | +0.455 |
| 5 | vs Jaguars | L 20-25 | -5.5 | +0.132 |
| 6 | vs Giants | W 14-9 | -15.5 | -0.012 |
| 7 | @ Patriots | L 25-29 | -7.5 | +0.149 |
| 8 | vs Buccaneers | W 24-18 | -10 | +0.088 |
| 9 | @ Bengals | L 18-24 | +1.5 | +0.041 |
| 10 | vs Broncos | L 22-24 | -7.5 | -0.105 |
| 11 | vs Jets | W 32-6 | -8 | +0.092 |
| 12 | @ Eagles | L 34-37 | +2.5 | +0.137 |
| 14 | @ Chiefs | W 20-17 | +2 | -0.001 |
| 15 | vs Cowboys | W 31-10 | -2 | +0.234 |
| 16 | @ Chargers | W 24-22 | -13 | -0.001 |
| 17 | vs Patriots | W 27-21 | -15 | -0.049 |
| 18 | @ Dolphins | W 21-14 | -2.5 | +0.061 |
| WC | vs Steelers | W 31-17 | -10 | +0.194 |
| DIV | vs Chiefs | L 24-27 | -2.5 | +0.143 |