2024 · Postseason
Week 18
Week 18: 16 games played. Broncos produced the widest margin at 38 points; the tightest finish was Bengals at Steelers, decided by 2.
Briefing7
Browns start Bailey Zappe rather than Jameis Winston, which the model treats as worth about 13.7 points against them.
Falcons start Michael Penix Jr. rather than Kirk Cousins, which the model treats as worth about 3.1 points for them.
Cowboys start Trey Lance rather than Cooper Rush, which the model treats as worth about 6.9 points against them.
Colts start Joe Flacco rather than Anthony Richardson, which the model treats as worth about 5.3 points for them.
Ravens lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.199, 0.012 clear of second.
Broncos have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.100 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Browns at Ravens, where it rates Browns about 10.4 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
Slate
