Closing spread
BUF -15.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.145
- 42.4%Success rate48.8%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.155EPA / rush+0.039
- 5.5%Explosive rate11.0%
- +1.72CPOE+3.77
- 39.4%Third-down rate46.0%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.53Points / drive2.73
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. BUF are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 18/27 | 126 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Spencer Rattler | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 6 | 20 | 1 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/22 | 209 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 22 | 117 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 5 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 2 | 28 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| James Cook | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.79
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.69