Closing spread
BUF -15.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutChase YoungDECalf· DNP
- OutDillon RadunzGToe· DNP
- QuestionableDevaughn VeleWRHip· Limited
Bills
- OutEd OliverDTAnkle· DNP
- OutMatt MilanoLBPectoral· DNP
- QuestionableA.J. EpenesaDEPectoral· Limited
- QuestionableSpencer BrownTCalf· Limited
Win probability
- Bills
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.145
- 42.4%Success rate48.8%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.155EPA / rush+0.039
- 5.5%Explosive rate11.0%
- +1.72CPOE+3.77
- 39.4%Third-down rate46.0%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.53Points / drive2.73
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. BUF are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 10:49 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q1 6:46 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| NO | Q1 2:29 | 8 | 47 | Punt | 7–14 |
| BUF | Q2 13:38 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| NO | Q2 12:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–14 |
| BUF | Q2 11:14 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NO | Q2 8:43 | 6 | 13 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| BUF | Q2 5:31 | 3 | -16 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NO | Q2 2:52 | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| BUF | Q2 1:22 | 4 | 14 | End of half | 10–14 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 10–14 |
| BUF | Q3 12:51 | 10 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| NO | Q3 6:42 | 12 | 60 | Touchdown | 16–21 |
| BUF | Q3 0:14 | 5 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 16–21 |
| NO | Q4 12:52 | 8 | 32 | Field goal | 19–21 |
| BUF | Q4 8:53 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 19–28 |
| NO | Q4 7:07 | 6 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 19–28 |
| BUF | Q4 5:36 | 8 | 32 | Field goal | 19–31 |
| NO | Q4 2:09 | 4 | -2 | Turnover on downs | 19–31 |
| BUF | Q4 1:44 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 18/27 | 126 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Spencer Rattler | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 6 | 20 | 1 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/22 | 209 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 22 | 117 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 5 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 2 | 28 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| James Cook | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.79
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.69