Closing spread
NO -2
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.092EPA / play-0.071
- 45.3%Success rate39.0%
- +0.140EPA / dropback-0.024
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.135
- 12.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.74CPOE-0.28
- 38.5%Third-down rate42.2%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 2.37Points / drive1.47
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. BUF are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 18/25 | 184 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 21 | 131 | 6.2 | 3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 106 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Trey Edmunds | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Chase Daniel | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 9 | 10 | 117 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Peterman | 7/10 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 9/18 | 56 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 8 | 49 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.41