2017 · Week 10

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

47·10

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 42°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NO -2

Total

48.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBills
  • +0.092EPA / play-0.071
  • 45.3%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback-0.024
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.135
  • 12.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.74CPOE-0.28
  • 38.5%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
  • 2.37Points / drive1.47
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 5–2 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. BUF are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4NO @ BUF19–31BUF
2021 · W12BUF @ NO31–6BUF
2013 · W8BUF @ NO17–35NO
2009 · W3NO @ BUF27–7NO
2005 · W4BUF @ NO7–19NO
2001 · W1NO @ BUF24–6NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00857Field goal0–3
NOQ1 10:581074Touchdown7–3
BUFQ1 6:18410Punt7–3
NOQ1 4:54824Turnover7–3
BUFQ1 1:34515Punt7–3
NOQ2 13:50958Touchdown14–3
BUFQ2 9:03621Punt14–3
NOQ2 5:43975Field goal17–3
BUFQ2 1:3939Punt17–3
NOQ2 0:2400End of half17–3
NOQ3 15:001180Touchdown24–3
BUFQ3 9:404-2Turnover30–3
NOQ3 8:2913Touchdown30–3
BUFQ3 8:24415Punt30–3
NOQ3 6:551094Touchdown37–3
BUFQ3 0:223-6Punt37–3
NOQ4 14:181333Field goal40–3
BUFQ4 4:53519Turnover on downs40–3
NOQ4 3:55244Touchdown47–3
BUFQ4 3:04660Touchdown47–10
NOQ4 1:5400End of half47–10

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees18/2518400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram211316.23
Alvin Kamara121068.81
Trey Edmunds9485.31
Drew Brees263.01
Chase Daniel3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas9101170
Alvin Kamara55320
Brandon Coleman14300
Michael Hoomanawanui1140
Ted Ginn1130
Coby Fleener0100
Josh Hill11-20

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nathan Peterman7/107910
Tyrod Taylor9/185601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy8496.10
Tyrod Taylor3279.00
Patrick DiMarco100.00
Deonte Thompson1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin36420
Patrick DiMarco33210
Jordan Matthews12140
Charles Clay23130
LeSean McCoy35110
Deonte Thompson14100
Nick O'Leary1271

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-0.41