Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play-0.096
- 39.5%Success rate41.1%
- -0.036EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.205
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- 37.9%Third-down rate38.7%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.44Points / drive1.11
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.5%
- +0.069EPA / play allowed+0.032
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NO are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 7/15 | 75 | 0 | 1 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 3/6 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 84 | 5.3 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 15/26 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 27 | 130 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Antowain Smith | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.73