Closing spread
NO -1.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.062
- 38.2%Success rate39.3%
- +0.007EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.115
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- 38.8%Third-down rate34.4%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.58Points / drive1.05
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.009EPA / play allowed+0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. BUF are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:41 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:47 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:36 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 5:31 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 0:32 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q2 14:37 | 11 | 72 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| NO | Q2 8:27 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q2 6:08 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NO | Q2 2:52 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q2 2:06 | 7 | 1 | Turnover on downs | 0–6 |
| NO | Q2 0:08 | 1 | 38 | End of half | 0–6 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| BUF | Q3 11:02 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| NO | Q3 9:18 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| BUF | Q3 6:48 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| NO | Q3 5:50 | 7 | 27 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| BUF | Q3 2:50 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 17–6 |
| NO | Q4 14:22 | 10 | 35 | Punt | 17–6 |
| BUF | Q4 9:46 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 17–6 |
| NO | Q4 8:02 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–6 |
| BUF | Q4 3:02 | 6 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 24–6 |
| NO | Q4 0:22 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 18/29 | 209 | 3 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 3 | 4 | 89 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 6 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Robert Wilson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Dave Stachelski | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 16/27 | 160 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 22 | 58 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McDaniel | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79