2021 · Week 12

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

31·6

Saints

New Orleans

QB Trevor Siemian

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

BUF -7

Total

45

Model margin

-0.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Nothing filed.

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapSaints
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.063
  • 47.4%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.003
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.147
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +1.95CPOE-5.00
  • 47.6%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.88
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 5–2 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NO are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4NO @ BUF19–31BUF
2017 · W10NO @ BUF47–10NO
2013 · W8BUF @ NO17–35NO
2009 · W3NO @ BUF27–7NO
2005 · W4BUF @ NO7–19NO
2001 · W1NO @ BUF24–6NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NO
NOQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:031065Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 7:09629Punt7–0
BUFQ1 3:216-1Punt7–0
NOQ2 14:51616Turnover on downs7–0
BUFQ2 12:46638Field goal10–0
NOQ2 8:46711Punt10–0
BUFQ2 6:08625Turnover10–0
NOQ2 3:1342Turnover on downs10–0
BUFQ2 1:47939Turnover10–0
NOQ2 0:0800End of half10–0
BUFQ3 15:001266Touchdown17–0
NOQ3 8:4834Punt17–0
BUFQ3 7:10553Touchdown24–0
NOQ3 4:191065Touchdown24–6
BUFQ4 14:54520Punt24–6
NOQ4 12:0234Punt24–6
BUFQ4 10:42451Touchdown31–6
NOQ4 8:17516Turnover31–6
BUFQ4 6:5935Punt31–6
NOQ4 4:39937End of half31–6

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/2826042

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary15442.90
Josh Allen8435.40
Matt Breida9262.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs79741
Gabe Davis23470
Cole Beasley55460
Dawson Knox33322
Matt Breida22291
Emmanuel Sanders33280
Devin Singletary1140

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian17/2916311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Jones16271.70
Ty Montgomery6142.30
Trevor Siemian331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lil'Jordan Humphrey35470
Ty Montgomery57310
Tre'Quan Smith45310
Marquez Callaway24240
Nick Vannett11111
Deonte Harty1590

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.47