Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
45
Model margin
-0.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.063
- 47.4%Success rate41.1%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.003
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.147
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- +1.95CPOE-5.00
- 47.6%Third-down rate36.1%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 2.52Points / drive1.88
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NO are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/28 | 260 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 9 | 74 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 3 | 32 | 2 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 17/29 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Jones | 16 | 27 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.47