Closing spread
NO -10.5
Total
48
Model margin
+0.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.115
- 39.7%Success rate47.2%
- -0.107EPA / dropback+0.209
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- -3.82CPOE+5.36
- 33.7%Third-down rate45.1%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
- 1.33Points / drive2.21
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NO are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thad Lewis | 22/39 | 234 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Thad Lewis | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Chandler | 7 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 7 | 11 | 72 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/34 | 332 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 4 | 129 | 2 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 3 | 37 | 2 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.13
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.70