2013 · Week 8

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Thaddeus Lewis

17·35

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -10.5

Total

48

Model margin

+0.7est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapSaints
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.115
  • 39.7%Success rate47.2%
  • -0.107EPA / dropback+0.209
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -3.82CPOE+5.36
  • 33.7%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.21
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 5–2 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NO are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4NO @ BUF19–31BUF
2021 · W12BUF @ NO31–6BUF
2017 · W10NO @ BUF47–10NO
2009 · W3NO @ BUF27–7NO
2005 · W4BUF @ NO7–19NO
2001 · W1NO @ BUF24–6NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NO
BUFQ1 15:0013Turnover0–0
NOQ1 14:523-7Missed field goal0–0
BUFQ1 13:22730Missed field goal0–0
NOQ1 9:4337Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:4959Turnover0–0
NOQ1 6:05321Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 4:4430Punt0–7
NOQ1 3:571044Missed field goal0–7
BUFQ2 14:51872Touchdown7–7
NOQ2 10:443-1Punt7–7
BUFQ2 8:33838Field goal10–7
NOQ2 4:35286Touchdown10–14
BUFQ2 3:4334Punt10–14
NOQ2 3:181172Touchdown10–21
BUFQ2 0:3015End of half10–21
NOQ3 15:00925Punt10–21
BUFQ3 10:083-2Punt10–21
NOQ3 8:40752Touchdown10–28
BUFQ3 5:151571Touchdown17–28
NOQ4 14:20611Punt17–28
BUFQ4 11:42415Turnover17–28
NOQ4 10:32761Touchdown17–35
BUFQ4 7:341354Turnover on downs17–35
NOQ4 3:55318End of half17–35

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Thad Lewis22/3923411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson15453.01
Tashard Choice7355.00
Thad Lewis252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Scott Chandler711720
Steve Johnson711721
Marquise Goodwin35560
Trevor Graham24190
Fred Jackson2480
Robert Woods1370

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/3433250

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas14654.60
Khiry Robinson791.30
Kenny Stills144.00
Drew Brees4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills341292
Benjamin Watson33450
Jimmy Graham33372
Lance Moore34341
Pierre Thomas33290
Marques Colston36180
Josh Hill22170
Robert Meachem13150
Darren Sproles4400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.13
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.70