2009 · Week 3

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

27·7

Bills

Buffalo

QB Trent Edwards

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 64°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NO -5.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBills
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.125
  • 48.1%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.231EPA / dropback-0.122
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.129
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +6.47CPOE-1.89
  • 45.6%Third-down rate26.3%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.20
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 5–2 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. BUF are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4NO @ BUF19–31BUF
2021 · W12BUF @ NO31–6BUF
2017 · W10NO @ BUF47–10NO
2013 · W8BUF @ NO17–35NO
2005 · W4BUF @ NO7–19NO
2001 · W1NO @ BUF24–6NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–BUF
NOQ1 15:001082Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 10:04842Punt7–0
NOQ1 6:30857Turnover on downs7–0
BUFQ1 3:14957Touchdown7–7
NOQ2 14:48721Turnover7–7
BUFQ2 11:48632Punt7–7
NOQ2 7:5848Punt7–7
NOQ2 6:12423Field goal10–7
BUFQ2 4:174-4Punt10–7
NOQ2 3:073-3Punt10–7
BUFQ2 1:47535Punt10–7
NOQ2 0:2300End of half10–7
BUFQ3 15:00515Punt10–7
NOQ3 12:591263Punt10–7
BUFQ3 6:26938Turnover10–7
NOQ3 2:12311Punt10–7
BUFQ4 14:4733Punt10–7
NOQ4 13:3330Punt10–7
BUFQ4 12:3837Punt10–7
NOQ4 11:01351Touchdown17–7
BUFQ4 9:45419Punt17–7
NOQ4 7:22944Field goal20–7
BUFQ4 3:214-1Turnover on downs20–7
NOQ4 2:15225Touchdown27–7
BUFQ4 2:0330Punt27–7
NOQ4 1:3600End of half27–7

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees16/2917200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas141269.02
Reggie Bush13644.90
Lynell Hamilton5244.81
Drew Brees681.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston47670
Jeremy Shockey68480
Devery Henderson35400
Reggie Bush37170
Robert Meachem0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Edwards20/3515601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson18713.90
Trent Edwards2136.50
Xavier Omon155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reed66600
Derek Fine59340
Lee Evans46310
Fred Jackson45260
Roscoe Parrish1150
Terrell Owens0500
Jonathan Stupar0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.85
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.89