Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.125
- 48.1%Success rate38.0%
- +0.231EPA / dropback-0.122
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.129
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +6.47CPOE-1.89
- 45.6%Third-down rate26.3%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
- 2.36Points / drive1.20
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. BUF are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 16/29 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 14 | 126 | 9.0 | 2 |
| Reggie Bush | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Lynell Hamilton | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 20/35 | 156 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Xavier Omon | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reed | 6 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Derek Fine | 5 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.89