Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
-3.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.145EPA / play-0.025
- 48.8%Success rate43.7%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.007
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.072
- 11.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- +3.77CPOE+1.44
- 46.0%Third-down rate35.7%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.73Points / drive1.80
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. CAR are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12/19 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2/4 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 19 | 216 | 11.4 | 2 |
| Ray Davis | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 7 | 88 | 1 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/24 | 175 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Trevor Etienne | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 7 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin-3.13