2025 · Week 8

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

40·9

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BUF -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

-3.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.145EPA / play-0.025
  • 48.8%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback+0.007
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.072
  • 11.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +3.77CPOE+1.44
  • 46.0%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.73Points / drive1.80
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–2 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. CAR are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W15CAR @ BUF14–31BUF
2017 · W2BUF @ CAR3–9CAR
2013 · W2CAR @ BUF23–24BUF
2009 · W7BUF @ CAR20–9BUF
2005 · W12CAR @ BUF13–9CAR
2001 · W13CAR @ BUF24–25BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CAR
CARQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:451049Field goal3–0
CARQ1 7:14846Turnover3–0
BUFQ1 3:401263Field goal6–0
CARQ2 13:03845Field goal6–3
BUFQ2 8:58377Touchdown12–3
CARQ2 7:2333Punt12–3
BUFQ2 5:42514Punt12–3
CARQ2 3:20519Turnover18–3
BUFQ2 1:5211Touchdown19–3
CARQ2 1:50945Missed field goal19–3
BUFQ3 15:00670Touchdown26–3
CARQ3 12:1845Punt26–3
BUFQ3 10:11988Touchdown33–3
CARQ3 4:591-4Turnover33–3
BUFQ3 4:41619Touchdown40–3
CARQ3 1:191367Touchdown40–9
BUFQ4 10:33826Punt40–9
CARQ4 4:5737Punt40–9
BUFQ4 3:1933Punt40–9
CARQ4 1:46416End of half40–9

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen12/1916310
Mitchell Trubisky2/42200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook1921611.42
Ray Davis9161.80
Josh Allen372.32
Ty Johnson461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir67881
Keon Coleman34300
Dalton Kincaid13230
Dawson Knox11150
Jackson Hawes23150
Elijah Moore14140
Ray Davis0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton16/2417501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle8546.80
Chuba Hubbard12342.81
Trevor Etienne4164.00
Jimmy Horn Jr.294.50
Andy Dalton210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan710990
Jalen Coker34360
Ja'Tavion Sanders33190
Xavier Legette23170
Tommy Tremble1140
Chuba Hubbard0100
Jimmy Horn Jr.0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin-3.13