Closing spread
CAR -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.018
- 39.0%Success rate41.3%
- -0.024EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- -0.28CPOE-2.85
- 42.2%Third-down rate43.2%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.47Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. CAR are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 17/25 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 9 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 20/32 | 228 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.73