2017 · Week 2

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

3·9

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CAR -6.5

Total

43

Model margin

+2.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.018
  • 39.0%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback+0.040
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.096
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -0.28CPOE-2.85
  • 42.2%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.87
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–2 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. CAR are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8BUF @ CAR40–9BUF
2021 · W15CAR @ BUF14–31BUF
2013 · W2CAR @ BUF23–24BUF
2009 · W7BUF @ CAR20–9BUF
2005 · W12CAR @ BUF13–9CAR
2001 · W13CAR @ BUF24–25BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CAR
CARQ1 15:001259Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 8:4939Punt0–3
CARQ1 7:43841Punt0–3
BUFQ1 2:2537Punt0–3
CARQ1 0:24621Punt0–3
BUFQ2 12:01621Punt0–3
CARQ2 8:531061Field goal0–6
BUFQ2 2:0244Punt0–6
CARQ2 1:30511Punt0–6
BUFQ2 0:061-2End of half0–6
BUFQ3 15:00725Turnover on downs0–6
CARQ3 12:333-3Punt0–6
BUFQ3 10:3547Punt0–6
CARQ3 8:223-2Punt0–6
BUFQ3 6:13623Punt0–6
CARQ3 3:2360Punt0–6
BUFQ3 0:27830Field goal3–6
CARQ4 11:091568Field goal3–9
BUFQ4 2:351252Turnover on downs3–9
CARQ4 0:0900End of half3–9

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor17/2512500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrod Taylor8556.90
LeSean McCoy1290.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy67340
Jordan Matthews33300
Charles Clay33230
Andre Holmes24180
Zay Jones26180
Patrick DiMarco0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton20/3222800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart15402.70
Cam Newton5275.40
Christian McCaffrey8101.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin68770
Devin Funchess46680
Christian McCaffrey45340
Ed Dickson23260
Greg Olsen12100
Curtis Samuel2370
Russell Shepard1260
Jonathan Stewart0100
Damiere Byrd0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.73