Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
37
Model margin
+4.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.058
- 38.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.122EPA / dropback-0.092
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.022
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.9%
- -1.89CPOE-3.62
- 26.3%Third-down rate37.2%
- 45.2%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.20Points / drive1.39
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. CAR are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 11/22 | 123 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 40 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Evans | 5 | 9 | 75 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 27/44 | 325 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 3 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.78