2009 · Week 7

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

20·9

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CAR -7

Total

37

Model margin

+4.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.058
  • 38.0%Success rate40.6%
  • -0.122EPA / dropback-0.092
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.022
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -1.89CPOE-3.62
  • 26.3%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 45.2%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.39
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–2 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. CAR are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8BUF @ CAR40–9BUF
2021 · W15CAR @ BUF14–31BUF
2017 · W2BUF @ CAR3–9CAR
2013 · W2CAR @ BUF23–24BUF
2005 · W12CAR @ BUF13–9CAR
2001 · W13CAR @ BUF24–25BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CAR
CARQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:2236Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:59833Punt0–0
BUFQ1 6:2138Punt0–0
CARQ1 5:2910Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 5:1627Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 4:361164Missed field goal7–0
BUFQ2 13:4836Punt7–0
CARQ2 12:54641Punt7–0
BUFQ2 9:131-2Safety7–2
CARQ2 9:06726Punt7–2
BUFQ2 5:22614Punt7–2
CARQ2 1:381069Missed field goal7–2
BUFQ3 15:00512Punt7–2
CARQ3 12:4938Punt7–2
BUFQ3 10:5035Punt7–2
CARQ3 9:21671Turnover on downs7–2
BUFQ3 6:02615Punt7–2
CARQ3 3:01416Turnover7–2
BUFQ3 1:07624Touchdown14–2
CARQ4 13:5243Punt14–2
BUFQ4 12:26455Field goal17–2
CARQ4 9:50883Touchdown17–9
BUFQ4 6:3434Punt17–9
BUFQ4 5:15616Field goal20–9
CARQ4 1:5646Turnover20–9
BUFQ4 1:3000End of half20–9

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick11/2212310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch17402.41
Ryan Fitzpatrick7101.40
Fred Jackson520.40
Terrell Owens111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lee Evans59751
Terrell Owens37270
Josh Reed23140
Marshawn Lynch1170
Jonathan Stupar0100
Steve Johnson0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme27/4432503

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams16895.61
Jonathan Stewart7253.60
Mike Goodson221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith611990
Gary Barnidge36770
DeAngelo Williams56500
Dante Rosario34350
Jeff King33230
Jonathan Stewart45200
Muhsin Muhammad22140
Dwayne Jarrett1370
Kenny Moore0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.78