Closing spread
BUF -14
Total
43
Model margin
+7.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play+0.091
- 41.2%Success rate47.4%
- -0.158EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.048
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -7.50CPOE+1.95
- 36.1%Third-down rate47.6%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.43Points / drive2.52
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. BUF are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/38 | 156 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 6 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/34 | 210 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 5 | 7 | 85 | 2 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.1%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.29