Closing spread
CAR -4
Total
36.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.082
- 41.2%Success rate39.5%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.141
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- 43.3%Third-down rate37.9%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.90Points / drive1.44
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed+0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. BUF are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 20/27 | 191 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 23 | 77 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Keary Colbert | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 16/29 | 197 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.78