2013 · Week 2

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

23·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 65°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBills
  • +0.050EPA / play-0.076
  • 42.1%Success rate39.7%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback-0.107
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.037
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.02CPOE-3.82
  • 44.3%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.33
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–2 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. BUF are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8BUF @ CAR40–9BUF
2021 · W15CAR @ BUF14–31BUF
2017 · W2BUF @ CAR3–9CAR
2009 · W7BUF @ CAR20–9BUF
2005 · W12CAR @ BUF13–9CAR
2001 · W13CAR @ BUF24–25BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–BUF
CARQ1 15:00746Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 11:58957Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 8:10615Punt0–0
BUFQ1 4:38527Punt0–0
CARQ1 2:34615Punt0–0
BUFQ2 14:45948Field goal0–3
CARQ2 10:4131Punt0–3
BUFQ2 9:3048Punt0–3
CARQ2 7:3164Punt0–3
BUFQ2 5:15738Punt0–3
CARQ2 2:071185Touchdown7–3
BUFQ2 0:1300End of half7–3
BUFQ3 15:001372Field goal7–6
CARQ3 10:49965Touchdown14–6
BUFQ3 6:52876Touchdown14–14
CARQ3 4:1578Punt14–14
BUFQ3 1:4020Turnover14–14
CARQ3 0:5967Field goal17–14
BUFQ4 12:4421Turnover17–14
CARQ4 12:14619Field goal20–14
BUFQ4 8:41450Field goal20–17
CARQ4 7:131159Field goal23–17
BUFQ4 1:381060Touchdown23–24
CARQ4 0:021-16End of half23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3822921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams22853.90
Cam Newton4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen78841
Ted Ginn38621
Steve Smith511520
Brandon LaFell47130
Armanti Edwards0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel27/3929611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller161036.40
Fred Jackson12302.51
EJ Manuel4133.30
Robert Woods133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson8101111
Robert Woods46680
Fred Jackson57350
C.J. Spiller34140
Scott Chandler36100
Trevor Graham1380
Tashard Choice1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.58