Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play-0.076
- 42.1%Success rate39.7%
- +0.130EPA / dropback-0.107
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.037
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.02CPOE-3.82
- 44.3%Third-down rate33.7%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 2.03Points / drive1.33
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. BUF are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/38 | 229 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 22 | 85 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 7 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 11 | 52 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 27/39 | 296 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 16 | 103 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 1 |
| EJ Manuel | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 8 | 10 | 111 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58