Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.195EPA / play-0.062
- 35.9%Success rate39.3%
- -0.169EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.115
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 30.3%Third-down rate34.4%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 0.78Points / drive1.05
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.016EPA / play allowed+0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. BUF are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 15/30 | 153 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 22 | 67 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Chris Weinke | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 8 | 12 | 104 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Van Pelt | 20/29 | 277 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 27 | 101 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 4 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Reggie Germany | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.73