2001 · Week 13

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

24·25

Bills

Buffalo

QB Alex Van Pelt

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 40°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBills
  • -0.195EPA / play-0.062
  • 35.9%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.169EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.247EPA / rush-0.115
  • 7.0%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 30.3%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.05
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%
  • +0.016EPA / play allowed+0.039

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–2 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.1 points. BUF are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8BUF @ CAR40–9BUF
2021 · W15CAR @ BUF14–31BUF
2017 · W2BUF @ CAR3–9CAR
2013 · W2CAR @ BUF23–24BUF
2009 · W7BUF @ CAR20–9BUF
2005 · W12CAR @ BUF13–9CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00310Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:40737Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 10:081073Field goal3–3
CARQ1 4:2433Punt3–3
BUFQ1 3:2465Punt3–3
CARQ1 0:391054Touchdown10–3
BUFQ2 10:2737Turnover10–3
CARQ2 8:5034Touchdown17–3
BUFQ2 8:05876Field goal17–6
CARQ2 3:48817Touchdown24–6
BUFQ2 0:36470Touchdown24–13
CARQ2 0:0100End of half24–13
CARQ3 15:00233Turnover24–13
BUFQ3 14:02629Punt24–13
CARQ3 10:28529Punt24–13
BUFQ3 8:2964Punt24–13
CARQ3 6:2528Opp touchdown24–19
BUFQ3 5:3900Opp touchdown24–19
CARQ3 5:39614Punt24–19
BUFQ3 3:23518Punt24–19
CARQ3 0:09615Punt24–19
BUFQ4 12:25961Touchdown24–25
CARQ4 7:5132Punt24–25
BUFQ4 6:3636Punt24–25
CARQ4 4:59715Turnover on downs24–25
BUFQ4 2:24510End of half24–25

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke15/3015311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley22673.01
Chris Weinke3113.71
Nick Goings200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad8121040
Kris Mangum34191
Donald Hayes15140
Wesley Walls1390
Richard Huntley2270
Isaac Byrd0200
Patrick Jeffers0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Van Pelt20/2927711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry271013.71
Sammy Morris242.00
Eric Moulds111.00
Alex Van Pelt3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jay Riemersma45580
Travis Henry23560
Eric Moulds44500
Peerless Price46481
Reggie Germany12390
Sammy Morris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.73