Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play+0.026
- 39.4%Success rate42.4%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.151
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.7%
- 39.2%Third-down rate38.5%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.24Points / drive1.98
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed+0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 24/43 | 251 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 7 | 12 | 78 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 17/23 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 8 | 132 | 16.5 | 2 |
| Fred Lane | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 8 | 9 | 117 | 0 |
| Rae Carruth | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Anthony Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Kinchen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.59