1999 · Week 3

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jeff Blake

3·27

Panthers

Carolina

QB Steve Beuerlein

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -7

Total

39.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.068EPA / play+0.026
  • 39.4%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.151
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 39.2%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 43.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.98
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
  • +0.041EPA / play allowed+0.053

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4CIN @ CAR34–24CIN
2022 · W9CAR @ CIN21–42CIN
2018 · W3CIN @ CAR21–31CAR
2014 · W6CAR @ CIN37–37Tie
2010 · W3CIN @ CAR20–7CIN
2006 · W7CAR @ CIN14–17CIN
2002 · W14CIN @ CAR31–52CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CAR
CINQ1 15:00753Missed field goal0–6
CARQ1 11:27162Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 11:16312Punt0–7
CINQ1 8:5554Turnover0–7
CARQ1 7:27521Field goal0–10
CINQ1 4:42419Punt0–10
CARQ1 2:343-3Punt0–10
CINQ1 1:07637Punt0–10
CARQ2 13:26627Punt0–10
CINQ2 9:161680Missed field goal0–10
CARQ2 0:46569Field goal0–13
CARQ3 15:00410Punt0–13
CINQ3 13:311168Missed field goal0–13
CARQ3 7:2916Turnover0–13
CINQ3 7:2334Field goal3–13
CARQ3 5:57276Touchdown3–20
CINQ3 4:47514Punt3–20
CARQ3 2:231256Touchdown3–27
CINQ4 11:031781Turnover on downs3–27
CARQ4 4:12521End of half3–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake24/4325101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon201135.70
Jeff Blake492.30
Nicolas Luchey341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnay Scott712780
Carl Pickens57580
Willie Jackson34330
Corey Dillon34240
Tony McGee13240
Marco Battaglia1570
Damon Griffin1270
Ki-Jana Carter0100
Nicolas Luchey0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Beuerlein17/2320410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Biakabutuka813216.52
Fred Lane551.00
Steve Beuerlein300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad891170
Rae Carruth33350
Fred Lane22190
Patrick Jeffers12170
Tim Biakabutuka1140
Wesley Walls1241
Anthony Johnson0100
Brian Kinchen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.59