Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.019
- 44.6%Success rate42.0%
- +0.059EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.020
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.27CPOE+0.60
- 41.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.63Points / drive1.86
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 29/46 | 284 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 17 | 107 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Darrin Reaves | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 11 | 62 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 7 | 8 | 49 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Darrin Reaves | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 33/43 | 323 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 18 | 137 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Sanu | 10 | 14 | 120 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 6 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| James Wright | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81