2014 · Week 6

Final / OT

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

37·37

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CIN -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBengals
  • -0.007EPA / play-0.019
  • 44.6%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.059EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.020
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.27CPOE+0.60
  • 41.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.86
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4CIN @ CAR34–24CIN
2022 · W9CAR @ CIN21–42CIN
2018 · W3CIN @ CAR21–31CAR
2010 · W3CIN @ CAR20–7CIN
2006 · W7CAR @ CIN14–17CIN
2002 · W14CIN @ CAR31–52CAR
1999 · W3CIN @ CAR3–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CIN
CARQ1 15:001582Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 5:451469Touchdown7–7
CARQ2 14:2139Punt7–13
CINQ2 12:05189Touchdown7–14
CARQ2 11:501046Field goal10–14
CINQ2 6:201364Field goal10–17
CARQ2 0:0300End of half10–17
CINQ3 15:001249Turnover10–17
CARQ3 9:49210Touchdown17–17
CINQ3 9:07520Punt17–17
CARQ3 6:05748Touchdown24–17
CINQ3 3:54416Turnover24–17
CARQ3 2:57840Missed field goal24–17
CINQ4 14:49781Touchdown24–24
CARQ4 11:381390Touchdown31–24
CINQ4 4:5013Touchdown31–31
CARQ4 4:323-3Turnover31–31
CINQ4 3:22419Field goal31–34
CARQ4 2:111054Field goal34–34
CINOT1256Field goal34–37
CAROT1255Field goal37–37
CINOT847Missed field goal37–37

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton29/4628421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton171076.31
Fozzy Whittaker9252.81
Darrin Reaves8151.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen611621
Jerricho Cotchery410580
Kelvin Benjamin78491
Jason Avant57470
Fozzy Whittaker22270
Brandon Williams11160
Brenton Bersin23130
Corey Brown1180
Darrin Reaves1140
Ed Dickson0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton33/4332322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard181377.61
Andy Dalton4256.30
Jeremy Hill8222.81
Brandon Tate199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Sanu10141201
Jermaine Gresham67680
Dane Sanzenbacher45400
Brandon Tate45381
James Wright11240
Giovani Bernard45200
Jeremy Hill44130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.81