2024 · Week 4

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

34·24

Panthers

Carolina

QB Andy Dalton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CIN -4.5

Total

47

Model margin

-2.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.107EPA / play-0.040
  • 48.0%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.040
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +6.81CPOE+0.06
  • 47.3%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.50Points / drive1.88
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9CAR @ CIN21–42CIN
2018 · W3CIN @ CAR21–31CAR
2014 · W6CAR @ CIN37–37Tie
2010 · W3CIN @ CAR20–7CIN
2006 · W7CAR @ CIN14–17CIN
2002 · W14CIN @ CAR31–52CAR
1999 · W3CIN @ CAR3–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CAR
CARQ1 15:001269Turnover on downs0–0
CINQ1 9:08835Punt0–0
CARQ1 4:33614Turnover0–0
CINQ1 2:09614Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 0:051165Touchdown7–7
CINQ2 9:31481Touchdown14–7
CARQ2 7:141270Touchdown14–14
CINQ2 1:091046Touchdown21–14
CARQ2 0:0100End of half21–14
CINQ3 15:00871Touchdown28–14
CARQ3 10:3838Punt28–14
CINQ3 8:5834Punt28–14
CARQ3 7:26623Turnover on downs28–14
CINQ3 5:1847Field goal31–14
CARQ3 2:52570Touchdown31–21
CINQ3 0:531055Turnover31–21
CARQ4 11:28729Field goal31–24
CINQ4 7:42520Punt31–24
CARQ4 4:4230Punt31–24
CINQ4 4:23940Field goal34–24
CARQ4 1:14528End of half34–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow22/3123221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown15805.32
Zack Moss15513.40
Joe Burrow11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase36851
Tee Higgins610600
Andrei Iosivas11290
Erick All44280
Zack Moss44271
Chase Brown23120
Drew Sample1100
Mike Gesicki11-90

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton25/4022021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard181045.81
Miles Sanders6325.30
Xavier Legette2105.00
Andy Dalton393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson713831
Xavier Legette610661
Jonathan Mingo35240
Chuba Hubbard44170
Ja'Tavion Sanders22160
Miles Sanders34140
Feleipe Franks0100
Jalen Coker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.2%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.27
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-2.57