Closing spread
CIN -4.5
Total
47
Model margin
-2.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play-0.040
- 48.0%Success rate41.8%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.040
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- +6.81CPOE+0.06
- 47.3%Third-down rate36.3%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.50Points / drive1.88
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 22/31 | 232 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Zack Moss | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 6 | 85 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Erick All | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 4 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 25/40 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 18 | 104 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 7 | 13 | 83 | 1 |
| Xavier Legette | 6 | 10 | 66 | 1 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Feleipe Franks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.27
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-2.57