Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.177
- 43.4%Success rate35.3%
- -0.085EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.219
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- 39.3%Third-down rate29.3%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.04Points / drive0.82
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.8%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 25/37 | 295 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Rudi Johnson | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 6 | 8 | 114 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 5 | 52 | 2 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 21/29 | 319 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Brown | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Nick Goings | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 6 | 144 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 8 | 10 | 106 | 1 |
| Wesley Walls | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Kris Mangum | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Karl Hankton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.21