2002 · Week 14

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

31·52

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.177
  • 43.4%Success rate35.3%
  • -0.085EPA / dropback-0.144
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.219
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.1%
  • 39.3%Third-down rate29.3%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.04Points / drive0.82
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.8%
  • +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.112

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4CIN @ CAR34–24CIN
2022 · W9CAR @ CIN21–42CIN
2018 · W3CIN @ CAR21–31CAR
2014 · W6CAR @ CIN37–37Tie
2010 · W3CIN @ CAR20–7CIN
2006 · W7CAR @ CIN14–17CIN
1999 · W3CIN @ CAR3–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CAR
CINQ1 15:00773Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 12:46620Punt7–6
CINQ1 9:1810Opp touchdown7–7
CARQ1 9:1300Opp touchdown7–7
CINQ1 9:13639Missed field goal7–7
CARQ1 5:47652Turnover7–7
CINQ1 3:322-2Safety7–9
CARQ1 2:5338Punt7–9
CINQ1 1:1876Opp touchdown7–16
CARQ2 13:4700Opp touchdown7–16
CINQ2 13:471065Touchdown14–16
CARQ2 8:1839Punt14–16
CINQ2 6:061468Field goal17–16
CARQ2 0:45826Turnover17–16
CARQ3 15:00468Touchdown17–23
CINQ3 13:033-1Punt23–23
CARQ3 11:2010Opp touchdown24–23
CINQ3 11:1000Opp touchdown24–23
CARQ3 11:10976Touchdown24–30
CINQ3 5:3733Opp touchdown24–37
CARQ3 4:2400Opp touchdown24–37
CINQ3 4:24768Touchdown31–37
CARQ3 0:27768Touchdown31–44
CINQ4 12:484-1Punt31–44
CARQ4 10:35756Touchdown31–52
CINQ4 6:133-16Punt31–52
CARQ4 5:08619Turnover on downs31–52
CINQ4 1:12539End of half31–52

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna25/3729520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon18553.10
Jon Kitna5204.01
Rudi Johnson581.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson681140
Peter Warrick35522
T.J. Houshmandzadeh34430
Corey Dillon44300
Ron Dugans46280
Rudi Johnson22150
Matt Schobel2290
Danny Farmer1140

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rodney Peete21/2931931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dee Brown17452.61
Nick Goings4235.80
Muhsin Muhammad133.00
Rodney Peete2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith561441
Muhsin Muhammad8101061
Wesley Walls22291
Kris Mangum22220
Nick Goings2290
Dee Brown2590
Karl Hankton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.21