2022 · Week 9

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Phillip Walker

21·42

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 68°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CIN -7

Total

43

Model margin

+7.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBengals
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.081
  • 40.8%Success rate47.8%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.064
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -4.71CPOE+2.74
  • 31.6%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.27
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4CIN @ CAR34–24CIN
2018 · W3CIN @ CAR21–31CAR
2014 · W6CAR @ CIN37–37Tie
2010 · W3CIN @ CAR20–7CIN
2006 · W7CAR @ CIN14–17CIN
2002 · W14CIN @ CAR31–52CAR
1999 · W3CIN @ CAR3–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CIN
CINQ1 15:00990Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 9:4236Punt0–7
CINQ1 7:3736Punt0–7
CARQ1 6:3732Punt0–7
CINQ1 5:271076Touchdown0–14
CARQ2 14:3737Punt0–14
CINQ2 12:381054Touchdown0–21
CARQ2 7:2924Turnover0–21
CINQ2 6:36542Touchdown0–28
CARQ2 3:45510Punt0–28
CINQ2 2:02425Punt0–28
CARQ2 1:3123Turnover0–28
CINQ2 1:09618Touchdown0–35
CARQ2 0:0400Turnover0–35
CARQ3 15:00842Touchdown7–35
CINQ3 10:521180Touchdown7–42
CARQ3 4:3836Punt7–42
CINQ3 3:42929Punt7–42
CARQ4 12:481086Touchdown14–42
CINQ4 7:47547Missed field goal14–42
CARQ4 3:471062Touchdown21–42
CINQ4 1:2900End of half21–42

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield14/2015520
PJ Walker3/10902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman7233.30
Spencer Brown3165.30
Raheem Blackshear5132.61
PJ Walker166.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrace Marshall Jr.36531
Raheem Blackshear44400
DJ Moore26240
Shi Smith12200
Tommy Tremble24111
Spencer Brown23100
Giovanni Ricci1180
Laviska Shenault Jr.0100
D'Onta Foreman23-20

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow22/2820610
Brandon Allen3/32200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon221537.04
Samaje Perine6518.50
Trent Taylor3186.00
Trenton Irwin11111.00
Joe Burrow492.31
Brandon Allen3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins78600
Joe Mixon45581
Tyler Boyd56440
Hayden Hurst55350
Trent Taylor22140
Trenton Irwin11140
Samaje Perine1230
Devin Asiasi0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.51
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+7.35