Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
43
Model margin
+7.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.081
- 40.8%Success rate47.8%
- -0.062EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- -4.71CPOE+2.74
- 31.6%Third-down rate47.3%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.70Points / drive2.27
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 14/20 | 155 | 2 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 3/10 | 9 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Spencer Brown | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 |
| PJ Walker | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 3 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Spencer Brown | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 22/28 | 206 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 3/3 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 22 | 153 | 7.0 | 4 |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Brandon Allen | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Devin Asiasi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.51
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+7.35