2018 · Week 3

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

21·31

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.067
  • 43.6%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.105EPA / rush+0.033
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -3.54CPOE+2.75
  • 36.9%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
  • 1.95Points / drive2.20
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4CIN @ CAR34–24CIN
2022 · W9CAR @ CIN21–42CIN
2014 · W6CAR @ CIN37–37Tie
2010 · W3CIN @ CAR20–7CIN
2006 · W7CAR @ CIN14–17CIN
2002 · W14CIN @ CAR31–52CAR
1999 · W3CIN @ CAR3–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CAR
CARQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:431373Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 7:40975Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 3:02424Turnover7–7
CARQ1 1:55967Touchdown7–14
CINQ2 12:031275Touchdown14–14
CARQ2 6:59775Touchdown14–21
CINQ2 2:47625Punt14–21
CARQ2 1:0924End of half14–21
CINQ3 15:00417Punt14–21
CARQ3 12:50531Punt14–21
CINQ3 10:37318Turnover14–21
CARQ3 9:27720Touchdown14–28
CINQ3 5:34575Touchdown21–28
CARQ3 2:53719Turnover on downs21–28
CINQ4 14:5733Punt21–28
CARQ4 13:25626Punt21–28
CINQ4 9:55761Missed field goal21–28
CARQ4 7:14525Punt21–28
CINQ4 4:212-10Turnover21–28
CARQ4 3:33628Field goal21–31
CINQ4 1:11535Turnover21–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton29/4635224

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard12615.11
Tyler Boyd155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd671321
Tyler Eifert68740
A.J. Green58580
Giovani Bernard59250
C.J. Uzomah22191
Tyler Kroft11160
John Ross37160
Josh Malone13120

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton15/2415020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey281846.60
Cam Newton10363.62
C.J. Anderson294.50
Alex Armah111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess47671
C.J. Anderson11241
Ian Thomas35200
Torrey Smith36190
Christian McCaffrey22100
Jarius Wright1170
DJ Moore1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.97