Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.067
- 43.6%Success rate48.0%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.105EPA / rush+0.033
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.7%
- -3.54CPOE+2.75
- 36.9%Third-down rate42.1%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.95Points / drive2.20
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 29/46 | 352 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 7 | 132 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert | 6 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| John Ross | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/24 | 150 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 28 | 184 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 2 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Funchess | 4 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.97