Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play-0.249
- 44.3%Success rate33.5%
- +0.055EPA / dropback-0.274
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.215
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.88CPOE-7.94
- 39.8%Third-down rate30.0%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
- 1.45Points / drive0.77
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 19/37 | 195 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 27 | 81 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 12 | 34 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 16/33 | 188 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Goodson | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79