2010 · Week 3

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

20·7

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jimmy Clausen

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.249
  • 44.3%Success rate33.5%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback-0.274
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.215
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +0.88CPOE-7.94
  • 39.8%Third-down rate30.0%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
  • 1.45Points / drive0.77
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4CIN @ CAR34–24CIN
2022 · W9CAR @ CIN21–42CIN
2018 · W3CIN @ CAR21–31CAR
2014 · W6CAR @ CIN37–37Tie
2006 · W7CAR @ CIN14–17CIN
2002 · W14CIN @ CAR31–52CAR
1999 · W3CIN @ CAR3–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CAR
CINQ1 15:0030Turnover0–0
CARQ1 14:44327Turnover0–0
CINQ1 13:39521Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:4832Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:54943Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 4:21623Punt7–0
CINQ1 1:18212Turnover7–0
CARQ1 0:1110Turnover7–0
CINQ1 0:061656Punt7–0
CARQ2 7:3336Punt7–0
CINQ2 5:23937Field goal10–0
CARQ2 1:103-8Turnover10–0
CINQ2 0:42327End of half10–0
CARQ3 15:0039Punt10–0
CINQ3 13:3537Punt10–0
CARQ3 11:39860Touchdown10–7
CINQ3 8:16838Punt10–7
CARQ3 3:4938Punt10–7
CINQ3 2:44618Field goal13–7
CARQ4 14:5334Punt13–7
CINQ4 13:2143Punt13–7
CARQ4 11:31526Turnover13–7
CINQ4 9:04337Touchdown20–7
CARQ4 8:111155Turnover on downs20–7
CINQ4 4:0339Punt20–7
CARQ4 2:18955Turnover on downs20–7
CINQ4 1:2500End of half20–7

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer19/3719512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson27813.01
Brian Leonard3165.30
Bernard Scott2157.50
Carson Palmer581.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Gresham46590
Terrell Owens49420
Jordan Shipley33370
Chad Johnson412340
Cedric Benson2391
Andre Caldwell1280
Brian Leonard1260

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen16/3318801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams10646.40
Jonathan Stewart8131.61
Jimmy Clausen6101.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Goodson48470
Brandon LaFell16440
David Gettis35320
Steve Smith35220
Jonathan Stewart22180
Jeff King13130
Dante Rosario23120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.79