Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.044
- 41.2%Success rate45.3%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.138
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- -0.31CPOE+5.38
- 31.1%Third-down rate36.8%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.29Points / drive1.98
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 20/34 | 238 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/39 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 26 | 101 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29