1999 · Week 3

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

21·31

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Elvis Grbac

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.027
  • 38.8%Success rate38.7%
  • +0.024EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.222EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 35.5%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.01
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.134

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. KC are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DET @ KC17–30KC
2023 · W1DET @ KC21–20DET
2019 · W4KC @ DET34–30KC
2015 · W8DET @ KC10–45KC
2011 · W2KC @ DET3–48DET
2007 · W16KC @ DET20–25DET
2003 · W15DET @ KC17–45KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–KC
DETQ1 15:00510Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:1934Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:5166Punt0–0
KCQ1 7:55616Punt0–0
DETQ1 5:0933Punt0–0
KCQ1 3:30455Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 1:30516Punt0–7
KCQ2 14:16413Punt0–7
DETQ2 11:57583Touchdown7–7
KCQ2 9:1430Punt7–7
DETQ2 7:0932Punt7–7
KCQ2 6:07463Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 4:1856Punt7–14
KCQ2 1:481048Field goal7–17
DETQ2 0:0100End of half7–17
KCQ3 15:00843Punt7–17
DETQ3 10:3131Punt7–17
KCQ3 9:26414Punt7–17
DETQ3 7:464-1Punt7–17
KCQ3 6:52448Touchdown7–24
DETQ3 5:00775Touchdown13–24
KCQ3 1:24628Punt13–24
DETQ4 13:26322Turnover13–24
KCQ4 12:04423Touchdown13–31
DETQ4 10:381344Turnover13–31
KCQ4 5:1336Punt13–31
DETQ4 2:56444Touchdown21–31
KCQ4 2:11423End of half21–31

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch16/3421322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Rivers13665.10
Germane Crowell12020.00
Sedrick Irvin3206.71
Charlie Batch4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Germane Crowell23480
Ron Rivers33461
Johnnie Morton29310
David Sloan45310
Sedrick Irvin12210
Walter Rasby1131
Brian Stablein0200
Iheanyi Uwaezuoke0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac20/2923520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaan Shehee11464.21
Bam Morris7162.30
Elvis Grbac263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez79721
Derrick Alexander36690
Kevin Lockett45360
Joe Horn22351
Rashaan Shehee33150
Andre Rison1380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.26