Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.027
- 38.8%Success rate38.7%
- +0.024EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.222EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- 35.5%Third-down rate39.1%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.19Points / drive1.01
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.134
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. KC are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 16/34 | 213 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Rivers | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Ron Rivers | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Brian Stablein | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Iheanyi Uwaezuoke | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 20/29 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaan Shehee | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Bam Morris | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 9 | 72 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 3 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.26