Closing spread
KC -14.5
Total
45
Model margin
+6.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.124
- 36.7%Success rate47.9%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.163
- -0.178EPA / rush+0.069
- 5.6%Explosive rate10.6%
- 34.9%Third-down rate42.4%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate79.8%
- 1.04Points / drive2.38
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. KC are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 20/36 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 18 | 105 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Artose Pinner | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 20/25 | 341 | 3 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 5/7 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 3 |
| Larry Johnson | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.07