Closing spread
DET -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.065
- 37.8%Success rate42.9%
- -0.112EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.134
- 5.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.79CPOE+1.53
- 34.0%Third-down rate32.3%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 0.94Points / drive1.58
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 24/36 | 305 | 2 | 0 |
| Brodie Croyle | 9/12 | 69 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolby Smith | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 9/16 | 115 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 15 | 102 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Kevin Jones | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.95