2011 · Week 2

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

3·48

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -9

Total

45

Model margin

+3.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapLions
  • -0.094EPA / play+0.036
  • 38.8%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.101
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.61CPOE+1.23
  • 35.7%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 38.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.98
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DET @ KC17–30KC
2023 · W1DET @ KC21–20DET
2019 · W4KC @ DET34–30KC
2015 · W8DET @ KC10–45KC
2007 · W16KC @ DET20–25DET
2003 · W15DET @ KC17–45KC
1999 · W3DET @ KC21–31KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DET
DETQ1 15:00636Turnover0–0
DETQ1 11:33326Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 10:50665Field goal3–7
DETQ1 8:0039Punt3–7
KCQ1 6:29641Missed field goal3–7
DETQ1 2:2335Punt3–7
KCQ1 0:53533Punt3–7
DETQ2 12:34826Punt3–7
KCQ2 8:3036Punt3–7
DETQ2 6:26245Touchdown3–14
KCQ2 5:50451Turnover3–14
DETQ2 4:36850Field goal3–17
KCQ2 1:07312Turnover3–17
DETQ2 0:30429Field goal3–20
KCQ2 0:021-9End of half3–20
KCQ3 15:00521Punt3–20
DETQ3 11:2334Punt3–20
KCQ3 9:47817Punt3–20
DETQ3 6:101084Touchdown3–27
KCQ3 1:171-8Turnover3–27
DETQ3 1:00523Touchdown3–34
KCQ4 14:4928Turnover3–34
DETQ4 14:08618Touchdown3–41
KCQ4 11:31616Turnover3–41
DETQ4 8:46739Touchdown3–48
KCQ4 5:0638Punt3–48
DETQ4 3:41517Punt3–48
KCQ4 1:0226End of half3–48

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel15/2213303
Tyler Palko0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dexter McCluster8516.40
Thomas Jones12403.30
Jamaal Charles22713.50
Dwayne Bowe11212.00
Jackie Battle263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe581010
Leonard Pope2390
Steve Breaston1270
Jerheme Urban1360
Dexter McCluster45-20

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3929441
Shaun Hill1/12800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best16573.61
Keiland Williams9252.81
Jerome Harrison461.50
Matthew Stafford111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson79930
Titus Young57890
Jahvid Best68661
Tony Scheffler14361
Calvin Johnson37292
Brandon Pettigrew1370
Will Heller1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.08