Closing spread
DET -9
Total
45
Model margin
+3.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.036
- 38.8%Success rate44.2%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.101
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.61CPOE+1.23
- 35.7%Third-down rate35.2%
- 38.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.06Points / drive1.98
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 15/22 | 133 | 0 | 3 |
| Tyler Palko | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 8 | 101 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 5 | -2 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/39 | 294 | 4 | 1 |
| Shaun Hill | 1/1 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Keiland Williams | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 7 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 5 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 6 | 8 | 66 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 3 | 7 | 29 | 2 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08