2025 · Week 6

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

17·30

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Chiefs

  • QuestionableJosh SimmonsTNot injury related - personal matter

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.042
  • 45.0%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.060
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +1.64CPOE-1.09
  • 39.2%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 2.54Points / drive2.23
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. KC are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1DET @ KC21–20DET
2019 · W4KC @ DET34–30KC
2015 · W8DET @ KC10–45KC
2011 · W2KC @ DET3–48DET
2007 · W16KC @ DET20–25DET
2003 · W15DET @ KC17–45KC
1999 · W3DET @ KC21–31KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–KC
DETQ1 15:001570Field goal3–0
KCQ1 5:21870Touchdown3–6
DETQ1 1:11671Touchdown10–6
KCQ2 12:491050Turnover on downs10–6
DETQ2 6:55836Turnover on downs10–6
KCQ2 2:42941Touchdown10–13
DETQ2 0:3738Punt10–13
KCQ2 0:1000End of half10–13
KCQ3 15:00881Touchdown10–20
DETQ3 11:18726Punt10–20
KCQ3 6:42628Punt10–20
DETQ3 3:34881Touchdown17–20
KCQ4 14:141054Touchdown17–27
DETQ4 9:303-4Punt17–27
KCQ4 7:12934Field goal17–30
DETQ4 2:2649Turnover on downs17–30
KCQ4 1:5800End of half17–30

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/2920320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs17653.80
David Montgomery4246.00
Jared Goff177.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams67661
Sam LaPorta56551
Amon-Ra St. Brown910450
David Montgomery22370
Jahmyr Gibbs1200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes22/3025730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco12514.30
Patrick Mahomes10323.21
Kareem Hunt6233.80
Xavier Worthy166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce67780
JuJu Smith-Schuster33570
Marquise Brown44452
Noah Gray22250
Brashard Smith34210
Xavier Worthy24201
Kareem Hunt11110
Isiah Pacheco1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.79