Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.042
- 45.0%Success rate44.5%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.060
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- +1.64CPOE-1.09
- 39.2%Third-down rate39.4%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 2.54Points / drive2.23
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. KC are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/29 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 6 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 6 | 55 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 22/30 | 257 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 4 | 45 | 2 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.79