2023 · Week 1

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

21·20

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

KC -4

Total

53

Model margin

+2.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.058EPA / play+0.021
  • 45.9%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.014EPA / rush-0.111
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.34CPOE+1.52
  • 42.4%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.89
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. KC are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DET @ KC17–30KC
2019 · W4KC @ DET34–30KC
2015 · W8DET @ KC10–45KC
2011 · W2KC @ DET3–48DET
2007 · W16KC @ DET20–25DET
2003 · W15DET @ KC17–45KC
1999 · W3DET @ KC21–31KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–KC
DETQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
KCQ1 14:09625Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:501491Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 2:461375Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 11:501171Turnover7–7
KCQ2 5:1435Punt7–7
DETQ2 3:4732Punt7–7
KCQ2 2:02792Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 0:34617Turnover on downs7–14
KCQ3 15:00514Punt7–14
DETQ3 12:5434Punt7–14
KCQ3 11:4434Opp touchdown14–14
KCQ3 10:54516Punt14–14
DETQ3 8:36643Punt14–14
KCQ3 5:44832Field goal14–17
DETQ3 2:10420Punt14–17
KCQ3 1:06747Field goal14–20
DETQ4 12:11980Touchdown21–20
KCQ4 7:0636Punt21–20
DETQ4 5:07526Turnover on downs21–20
KCQ4 2:3050Turnover on downs21–20
DETQ4 2:00310End of half21–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/3525310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery21743.51
Jahmyr Gibbs7426.00
Jared Goff5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds47800
Amon-Ra St. Brown69711
Sam LaPorta55390
Kalif Raymond11200
Jahmyr Gibbs22180
Brock Wright22170
Marvin Jones2680

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes21/3922621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes6457.50
Isiah Pacheco8232.90
Clyde Edwards-Helaire6223.70
Skyy Moore144.00
Kadarius Toney1-1-1.00
Rashee Rice1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling22480
Justin Watson24450
Noah Gray35310
Isiah Pacheco44310
Rashee Rice35291
Blake Bell23121
Jerick McKinnon12100
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1170
Richie James1260
Justyn Ross1160
Kadarius Toney1510
Skyy Moore0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.32