Closing spread
KC -4
Total
53
Model margin
+2.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play+0.021
- 45.9%Success rate43.8%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.111
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.34CPOE+1.52
- 42.4%Third-down rate44.9%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.29Points / drive1.89
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. KC are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/35 | 253 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 9 | 71 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 21/39 | 226 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Blake Bell | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Justyn Ross | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.32