Closing spread
KC -3
Total
45
Model margin
+4.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.033
- 44.9%Success rate44.0%
- +0.045EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.024
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.09CPOE+0.03
- 38.4%Third-down rate36.6%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.90Points / drive1.92
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. KC are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/36 | 217 | 1 | 2 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 1/2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 6 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 18/26 | 145 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 2/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 20 | 97 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 78 | 15.6 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Knile Davis | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 8 | 49 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Charcandrick West | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.34