2015 · Week 8

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

10·45

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

45

Model margin

+4.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.033
  • 44.9%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.045EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.024
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.09CPOE+0.03
  • 38.4%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.92
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. KC are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DET @ KC17–30KC
2023 · W1DET @ KC21–20DET
2019 · W4KC @ DET34–30KC
2011 · W2KC @ DET3–48DET
2007 · W16KC @ DET20–25DET
2003 · W15DET @ KC17–45KC
1999 · W3DET @ KC21–31KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–KC
DETQ1 15:001058Field goal3–0
KCQ1 9:09956Touchdown3–7
DETQ1 4:0737Punt3–7
KCQ1 3:113-1Punt3–7
DETQ1 1:103-4Punt3–7
KCQ2 14:47768Touchdown3–14
DETQ2 12:0037Turnover3–14
KCQ2 11:15522Field goal3–17
DETQ2 8:33429Turnover3–17
KCQ2 6:19652Touchdown3–24
DETQ2 3:26824Punt3–24
KCQ2 0:5220End of half3–24
KCQ3 15:001161Touchdown3–31
DETQ3 8:5331Punt3–31
KCQ3 7:5283Punt3–31
DETQ3 3:35945Turnover on downs3–31
KCQ4 14:5039Punt3–31
DETQ4 12:3436Punt3–31
KCQ4 10:57216Touchdown3–38
DETQ4 10:11777Touchdown10–38
KCQ4 7:21236Touchdown10–45
DETQ4 6:4038Punt10–45
KCQ4 5:39619Punt10–45
DETQ4 1:49418End of half10–45

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3621712
Dan Orlovsky1/21000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell7568.00
Theo Riddick5173.40
Matthew Stafford155.00
Ameer Abdullah133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson510850
Golden Tate67590
Theo Riddick67300
Lance Moore33291
Eric Ebron35240
Brandon Pettigrew0100
Joique Bell0100
Corey Fuller0200
Ameer Abdullah0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith18/2614520
Chase Daniel2/2400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charcandrick West20974.81
Alex Smith57815.61
Spencer Ware2126.01
De'Anthony Thomas11010.01
Knile Davis492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce68491
Jeremy Maclin35351
Charcandrick West46250
De'Anthony Thomas33220
Albert Wilson34120
Chris Conley1160
Demetrius Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.34