Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
-2.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.135EPA / play-0.039
- 47.0%Success rate41.5%
- +0.247EPA / dropback+0.049
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +1.86CPOE-3.54
- 48.7%Third-down rate41.4%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.59Points / drive1.73
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/42 | 315 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Deon Yelder | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 4 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/34 | 291 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 26 | 125 | 4.8 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 5 | 9 | 67 | 2 |
| Marvin Hall | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.26