2019 · Week 4

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

34·30

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

KC -7.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

-2.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapLions
  • +0.135EPA / play-0.039
  • 47.0%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.247EPA / dropback+0.049
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.193
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +1.86CPOE-3.54
  • 48.7%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.73
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DET @ KC17–30KC
2023 · W1DET @ KC21–20DET
2015 · W8DET @ KC10–45KC
2011 · W2KC @ DET3–48DET
2007 · W16KC @ DET20–25DET
2003 · W15DET @ KC17–45KC
1999 · W3DET @ KC21–31KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DET
DETQ1 15:00968Field goal0–3
KCQ1 9:22856Missed field goal0–3
DETQ1 5:39854Touchdown0–10
KCQ1 3:05971Field goal3–10
DETQ2 14:1256Punt3–10
KCQ2 11:1736Punt3–10
DETQ2 10:13510Punt3–10
KCQ2 8:10767Touchdown10–10
DETQ2 4:13754Field goal10–13
KCQ2 1:03549Field goal13–13
DETQ2 0:0200End of half13–13
KCQ3 15:0000Turnover13–13
DETQ3 14:51630Turnover13–13
KCQ3 12:03512Turnover13–13
DETQ3 9:55326Opp touchdown20–13
DETQ3 9:08635Field goal20–16
KCQ3 6:19325Turnover20–16
DETQ3 4:50845Touchdown20–23
KCQ3 1:101059Touchdown27–23
DETQ4 12:0969Punt27–23
KCQ4 9:16519Punt27–23
DETQ4 6:42979Touchdown27–30
KCQ4 2:261374Touchdown34–30
DETQ4 0:20431End of half34–30

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/4231500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy11565.11
Patrick Mahomes6549.00
Darrel Williams8131.62

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce78850
Sammy Watkins36540
Darrel Williams34430
Deon Yelder22430
Demarcus Robinson49350
LeSean McCoy24330
Byron Pringle11130
Mecole Hardman2590

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford21/3429130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson261254.80
J.D. McKissic4307.50
Matthew Stafford2189.00
Ty Johnson3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones35770
Kenny Golladay59672
Marvin Hall23470
Kerryon Johnson23320
T.J. Hockenson33271
Logan Thomas33250
J.D. McKissic12110
Nick Bawden1240
Ty Johnson1110
Jesse James0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

4.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.0%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.26