Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+6.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play-0.013
- 35.9%Success rate39.6%
- -0.148EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.226EPA / rush-0.079
- 5.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- 33.3%Third-down rate34.8%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 0.87Points / drive1.25
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/33 | 111 | 1 | 3 |
| Dave Brown | 4/6 | 30 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 11 | 42 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 5 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| David Boston | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Andy McCullough | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 15/21 | 192 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 22 | 77 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Chris Warren | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jason Garrett | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 4 | 6 | 101 | 1 |
| Michael Irvin | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Ernie Mills | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tim Lester | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.63