1999 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

7·35

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 67°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

42.5

Model margin

+6.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.176EPA / play-0.013
  • 35.9%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.148EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.226EPA / rush-0.079
  • 5.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 33.3%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 0.87Points / drive1.25
  • 3.8%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.080

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 13–7 since 1999

ARI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.7 points. DAL are 9-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ARI @ DAL33–30ARI
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–DAL
ARIQ1 15:0033Opp touchdown0–7
DALQ1 13:2800Opp touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 13:2840Punt0–7
DALQ1 11:3136Punt0–7
ARIQ1 9:2634Punt0–7
DALQ1 7:55962Touchdown0–14
ARIQ1 3:1933Punt0–14
DALQ1 2:08517Punt0–14
ARIQ1 0:16618Punt0–20
DALQ2 12:09163Touchdown0–21
ARIQ2 12:0135Punt0–21
DALQ2 10:4734Punt0–21
ARIQ2 9:00622Punt0–21
DALQ2 6:47624Punt0–21
ARIQ2 2:3347Punt0–21
DALQ2 1:1632Punt0–21
ARIQ2 0:41538Touchdown7–21
DALQ2 0:1100End of half7–21
DALQ3 15:001378Touchdown7–28
ARIQ3 7:5935Punt7–28
DALQ3 5:49514Turnover7–28
ARIQ3 3:533-1Turnover7–28
DALQ3 2:59613Punt7–28
ARIQ3 0:001159Opp touchdown7–35
DALQ4 10:1300Opp touchdown7–35
ARIQ4 10:13515Turnover7–35
DALQ4 7:30827Missed field goal7–35
ARIQ4 2:11630Turnover7–35
DALQ4 1:0400End of half7–35

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer16/3311113
Dave Brown4/63001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Murrell14443.10
Jake Plummer3186.00
Michael Pittman492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman45420
Frank Sanders211420
Terry Hardy57170
David Boston24110
Mac Cody13110
Adrian Murrell33110
Johnny McWilliams1230
Andy McCullough1220

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman15/2119220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith22773.51
Chris Warren11242.20
Raghib Ismail2147.00
Troy Aikman210.50
Jason Garrett2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail461011
Michael Irvin22241
Ernie Mills24230
Jeff Ogden11100
Chris Warren22100
Tim Lester1130
Mike Lucky1120
David LaFleur0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.63