Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.024EPA / play+0.117
- 39.1%Success rate46.6%
- +0.056EPA / dropback+0.286
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.068
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.8%
- -4.59CPOE+5.68
- 40.7%Third-down rate47.6%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 1.54Points / drive2.36
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 22/34 | 249 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 21 | 95 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Marion Grice | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 8 | 19 | 1 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| John Brown | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 18/33 | 183 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 2 | 10 | 15 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-7.50
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.79