2014 · Week 9

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

28·17

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Brandon Weeden

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

Total

45

Model margin

-1.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.024EPA / play+0.117
  • 39.1%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback+0.286
  • -0.165EPA / rush-0.068
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -4.59CPOE+5.68
  • 40.7%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.36
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 12–7 since 1999

ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI
2010 · W16DAL @ ARI26–27ARI
2008 · W6DAL @ ARI24–30ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–DAL
ARIQ1 15:00832Opp touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 10:55417Punt0–7
DALQ1 8:48954Field goal0–10
ARIQ1 4:031380Touchdown7–10
DALQ2 12:3932Punt7–10
ARIQ2 10:4937Punt7–10
DALQ2 9:2246Punt7–10
ARIQ2 7:22863Touchdown14–10
DALQ2 4:34946Missed field goal14–10
DALQ3 15:0033Punt14–10
ARIQ3 14:0147Punt14–10
DALQ3 12:27926Turnover14–10
ARIQ3 8:00747Punt14–10
DALQ3 3:20933Punt14–10
ARIQ4 13:344-5Punt14–10
DALQ4 11:0049Turnover on downs14–10
ARIQ4 9:36965Touchdown21–10
DALQ4 6:0020Turnover21–10
ARIQ4 5:25528Touchdown28–10
DALQ4 4:201287Touchdown28–17
ARIQ4 1:0800End of half28–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer22/3424931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington21954.50
Marion Grice5122.41
Carson Palmer2-2-1.00
John Brown1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald56700
Ted Ginn22420
Andre Ellington44391
Michael Floyd45360
John Carlson28191
Robert Hughes12180
Jaron Brown22151
John Brown25100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden18/3318312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray19794.20
Lance Dunbar393.00
Brandon Weeden221.00
Joseph Randle122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten67620
Lance Dunbar22520
Terrance Williams27190
Dez Bryant210151
Dwayne Harris11120
Cole Beasley12120
DeMarco Murray44110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.50
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.79