2020 · Week 6

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

38·10

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Andy Dalton

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -1

Total

55.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Cowboys

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.051EPA / play-0.029
  • 46.0%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.073
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +2.07CPOE-1.42
  • 40.2%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.87
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 12–7 since 1999

ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI
2010 · W16DAL @ ARI26–27ARI
2008 · W6DAL @ ARI24–30ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–DAL
ARIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
DALQ1 14:0434Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:151036Punt0–0
DALQ1 8:1734Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:1243Punt0–0
DALQ1 5:17735Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 2:361154Touchdown7–0
DALQ2 12:5823Turnover7–0
ARIQ2 12:10527Touchdown14–0
DALQ2 10:311140Punt20–0
ARIQ2 4:53180Touchdown21–0
DALQ2 4:431350Field goal21–3
ARIQ2 0:1000End of half21–3
DALQ3 15:00533Turnover21–3
ARIQ3 12:251073Touchdown28–3
DALQ3 7:53935Missed field goal28–3
ARIQ3 5:4365Punt28–3
DALQ3 2:411365Turnover28–3
ARIQ4 13:18882Field goal31–3
DALQ4 8:542062Touchdown31–10
ARIQ4 2:48375Touchdown38–10
DALQ4 1:49313End of half38–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray9/2418820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake201648.22
Kyler Murray10747.41
Chase Edmonds5234.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk23862
DeAndre Hopkins28730
Larry Fitzgerald34220
Chase Edmonds1260
Darrell Daniels1110
Kenyan Drake0200
Andy Isabella0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton34/5426612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott12494.10
Tony Pollard10313.10
Rico Dowdle3134.30
Andy Dalton242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper710791
CeeDee Lamb711640
Dalton Schultz45350
Ezekiel Elliott810310
Michael Gallup26230
Noah Brown22150
Cedrick Wilson Jr.23100
Tony Pollard2490
Blake Bell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

40.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.83