Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
55.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.029
- 46.0%Success rate46.1%
- +0.087EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.073
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.07CPOE-1.42
- 40.2%Third-down rate41.5%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.19Points / drive1.87
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 9/24 | 188 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 20 | 164 | 8.2 | 2 |
| Kyler Murray | 10 | 74 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 3 | 86 | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 34/54 | 266 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 10 | 79 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 8 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
40.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.83