2017 · Week 3

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

28·17

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCardinals
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.129
  • 43.8%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.086
  • +0.027EPA / rush-0.207
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -0.45CPOE-4.25
  • 43.3%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.20
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 12–7 since 1999

ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI
2010 · W16DAL @ ARI26–27ARI
2008 · W6DAL @ ARI24–30ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00976Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 9:5933Punt0–7
ARIQ1 8:051666Missed field goal0–7
DALQ2 14:0731Punt0–7
ARIQ2 12:34615Punt0–7
DALQ2 9:28830Punt0–7
ARIQ2 4:243-5Punt0–7
DALQ2 2:21423Touchdown7–7
ARIQ2 1:1130End of half7–7
DALQ3 15:00526Punt7–7
ARIQ3 12:153-1Punt7–7
DALQ3 10:29446Touchdown14–7
ARIQ3 8:31616Punt14–7
DALQ3 5:4530Punt14–7
ARIQ3 4:45354Touchdown14–14
DALQ3 3:13423Punt14–14
ARIQ3 1:0539Punt14–14
DALQ4 14:45550Touchdown21–14
ARIQ4 11:521566Field goal21–17
DALQ4 6:35475Touchdown28–17
ARIQ4 4:573-5Punt28–17
DALQ4 4:033-3Punt28–17
ARIQ4 2:571141Turnover on downs28–17
DALQ4 0:3600End of half28–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott13/1818320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott22803.61
Dak Prescott3165.31
Ryan Switzer133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brice Butler22901
Terrance Williams34470
Ezekiel Elliott34140
Noah Brown11130
Dez Bryant22121
Cole Beasley1140
Jason Witten1430

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer29/4832520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington5224.40
Chris Johnson12171.40
Carson Palmer372.30
Kerwynn Williams133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald13151491
Andre Ellington58590
Jermaine Gresham59470
Jaron Brown26271
Brittan Golden13210
Troy Niklas11100
Chad Williams1180
Chris Johnson1240
J.J. Nelson0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.25