Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.129
- 43.8%Success rate38.8%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.086
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.207
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- -0.45CPOE-4.25
- 43.3%Third-down rate35.7%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.85Points / drive1.20
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 13/18 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 22 | 80 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Butler | 2 | 2 | 90 | 1 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 29/48 | 325 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 12 | 17 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 13 | 15 | 149 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.25